WORLD TRADE WAR: TRUMP WINS

The EU Commission is backtracking their previous rejected deal with Theresa May and claiming that the no-deal BREXIT really means the rejected deal that gave them $46 billion is the best solution for all… according to Mina Andreeva, a spokesperson.

Certainly $46 billion is a whole lot better than the $9 billion they would likely get in the Johnson no-deal deal.   Of course, resurrecting a ‘rejected’ deal would legally be starting from scratch.   But in the mélange of chaos, the EU Commission would seem to be grasping and gasping – albeit too late.

All economic indicators now rally behind an impending recession for Germany. Given they are the stalwart economy behind the EU, where Germany goes, everyone else follows.

The primary cause of Germany’s implosion is trade not BREXIT.   Industrial output has tanked, primarily in the auto and machine parts industries. Merkel’s outright refusal to negotiate a fair trade with the US having been advised that in so doing she could create a German recession – is simply corrupt.

But allies can sometimes reveal the wolf behind the mask.   Germany is not a US ally, Germany milked the US economy for decades.

The US/China trade war tipped the balance, and Germany remained staunch and unmoving.

Timing is everything.

If the UK remainers win, the UK will derail with Germany and France.   They will be boarding a sinking ship. Short-sighted, ramping up trade with the US would be an economic win.   But sometimes, pride and principle are fervent manufacturers of destruction.

While the socialists in the EU argue against Trump’s tariffs, they seem to forget that Trump offered a zero tariff exchange which Germany and the EU snubbed.   Is the EU working for the people?   It would seem not.   And like the rejected BREXIT deal that they want to suddenly reinstate, a zero tariff trade with the US may be the no-deal deal.

Is it the trade deal or is it the ally that wasn’t?

While rejecting the US zero trade deal, the EU simultaneously agreed to zero tariff’s with Japan.   The wolf showed his face.  And the ally that was, revealed it’s true corruption.  The EU wanted an imbalance and it served them well for 30 years.

The US trade balance was at zero up until 1976.   The following 15 years saw the trade balance dip and trough before coming back to zero.   Between 1991 and 2010, the trade balance tanked! Why?

Clintonomics.

Clinton lowered US tariffs which ultimately destroyed US ability to compete in the export and trade markets, particularly with China.   Because while the US lowered its tariffs, other countries did not follow suit which would have been the job of the WTO…   The World Trade Organization, which was originally the General Agreement on Tariffs and Tax, was created to provide an equality, a balance of tariffs among all member countries. Apparently, that nondiscrimination balance didn’t apply to the US.

When Clinton lowered the tariff rate in the US trade disparities began to escalate rapidly to the detriment of the US. In fact, it was a binge selloff with the US trade balance going from zero to -900billion with the speed of a Lamborghini on a German autobahn!

Prior to this binge selloff, US small businesses were a growing, the economic boom of entrepreneurship expanded significantly.   Mom and pop stores changed the face of the US.   But with the advent of Clintonesque cheap imports, these small businesses began to shutter, unable to compete.   The Walmarts of the world took over increasing the trade balance even more as Chinese goods became the mainstay.   And middle class shrunk like Alice.

In 1980 small business start-ups represented 12% of all US companies and employed 4% of workers. Today those numbers are halved. Those companies were The American Dream. That Dream died when Clinton lowered tariffs despite advice from both parties that such a move would destroy US businesses. The World Trade Center obviously did nothing to balance the discrepancies in countries tariffs, and have proven to be a truly non-essential entity.

Back to BREXIT.

The creation of new trade partners invoking a zero tariff policy is the ultimate free-trade deal.   It is the deal that is now in effect with Mexico and Canada. Today China has slipped to third place in US imports with Mexico rising to number 1 and Canada to number 2.   Expanding their economies, Trump’s zero tariff trade is picking up the slack of China imports while contracting their economy.  It is a non-tax trade.

Adding the UK, would provide them with a backstop and relieve the angst of impending doom and gloom that the naysayers of BREXIT fear.  Trump and Johnson have already made arrangements to soften the initial BREXIT wind and create a sovereign economy without the welfare payouts to the EU.

It is change.   Change requires stamina and patience. Fear will only forebode chaos.

Russia Sanctions – Meaningless Propaganda.

Germany is defending the need for NATO in order to defend the EU democracies against a Russian invasion. Although Russia has given no intelligencia impression of any desire to attack the EU, the narrative serves a purpose.

Germany and her counterparts do not want to foot the defense bill, and given NATO and the UN have been subsidized by the US for decades, it serves a financial purpose rather than a defense purpose.

In that vein, Germany is also defying the Russian sanctions to punish the evil Putin by opening up a Mercedes car plant near Moscow.   The hypocrisy couldn’t be more abject.   Praising the German-Russian partnership, Germany’s Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy, Peter Altmaier said that he saw great potential for future cooperation with Russia despite “political differences.”

Despite Merkel attempting to justify the trade move, the fact remains, it is all about money. Trade between Russia and Germany amounts to roughly 62billion Euro annually.  The farce of sanctions is thus defined.  It is a political move to create the appearance of doing something to appease constituents who have been led to believe a demonizing fake media agenda.

Cuba.  No different.  Despite levying sanctions for decades to oppose the communist regime, tourism continues to be a source of – money.   Canada is the largest source of tourism revenue, US is second and Germany is third.  Italy, France, Spain, the UK and even Russia enjoy the pristine beaches.  But a large sector of the tourism is actually health related given that the government shifted a tremendous amount of funds to that sector following the sanctions.   While doctors make less than waiters, their education and drive to cure rather than medicate is a sought after industry.

Germany sought to side-step the Iran sanctions in order to create a trade bolster to their economy.  And now Venezuela is finding itself in the middle of a power struggle from outside countries as the frenzy to capitalize on a collapsed economy provides huge potential to make money.

Syria is a case in point. Create a fake war.  Destroy an entire country.  And then vie for the contracts to rebuild, create a new economy, and walk away with a flush wallet.   If a country’s government is not willing to board that plane, the country stands to become the next victim.

Citizens will protest, citizens will cry foul, but in the end, that foul is what supports their continued luxuries and necessities.

Until a new mental acumen can devise a way to deviate from this system that has been in play since the beginning of time, we will be subject to its consequences.  Until this layer of global Swampland can be eradicated, they will continue to reap the rewards their inherent greed demands.  The mindset is always – no matter what a person has, it is never enough.   A millionaire wants to be a billionaire, and a billionaire wants to rule the world because billions will buy such.  Greed, boredom, and a bizarre belief that the pawns within this world are there to protect and die for the Queen, remains the monarchial mentality that was and is and is to be.

Until – we say – no.

Merkel is simply looking for a means to prop up a cracking economy in order to give the appearance she is Germany when in fact she is the same Merkel that destroyed Germany.   In her last and final days before resigning, her legacy is at stake, her honor must be upheld, and respect must be reattained.   By any means.

Germany has historically been the instigator of our worst global wars – always within the guise of propping up a cracked economy.

Illegal Immigrant Crisis – Global Chaos

Dutch authorities have admitted massive fraud in the refugee benefit program wherein Turkish citizens with homes in Turkey are using fake ID’s to claim benefits in The Netherlands and Germany.  According to Dutch authorities upwards of 17million Euros have vanished and perhaps as many as 12,000 Turks and migrants are capitalizing on the fraudulent scam.  

In fact, the Turkish town of Rashdiye is home to 700 Turks, all of whom claim and are supported by German welfare.   This is their ‘wage’, it provides for all their needs including a home, food, and even televisions.  According to one such resident, his children work and own multiple hotels, but this is free money.  German authorities are aware, but choose to ignore the situation because it would be bad press coverage and stoke more animosity toward the migrants.

Last year, when an employee of Germany’s state reception authority discovered that a large number of migrants were collecting multiple benefits using different names, sometimes as many as six, and reported the fraud, she was fired.   Her boss told her to bury the files in the basement where they wouldn’t be found, leave it alone, and most importantly, keep quiet.  She refused.

Still, nothing changed, no one is denied benefits.  It might appear racist or discriminatory, or their fragile demeanor might be offended…

The Dutch authorities state that the fraud is most likely widespread throughout the EU with Turks, Syrians, Afghani’s, and Lebanese playing the game.  And they have an unlikely assist to help them in these schemes – medical doctors.   In both Germany and France, medical doctors sometimes provide fake medical certificates for immigrants who have no ID in order to prevent deportation.   They then use these fake documents to obtain welfare benefits including ‘retroactive benefits’.

The cost of illegal immigration is difficult to tally, because it involves services not typically transparent such as;  deportation costs, travel costs, medical costs, fraud costs, housing and welfare costs, childcare costs, border costs, security costs, and societal costs.

According to the Heritage Foundation, as of 2013, the cost to the US was roughly $55 billion per year for ‘illegal immigrants’.   According to FAIR, Federation For American Immigration Reform, the annual ‘NET’ cost is now $116 billion per year on a federal, state and local level.

The confusing issue that seems to somehow allude the MSM, is attempting to classify illegal vs legal immigration.   No one is opposed to immigration, it is the illegal portion that is at issue.  If Governor Jerry Brown wants to personally go to Honduras and grant California documents to a bunch of Hondurans and personally fly them back to San Francisco, then more power to him.  If George Clooney wants to house illegals at his home in Lake Cuomo Italy and have Amal get them legal citizenship while providing an annual stipend to keep them off welfare, more power to him.

But this constant defense of illegal activity is simply nonsense.

Germany has estimated a cost of $86 billion over four years to support their immigrants and plan to pay for it out of their surplus budget…   Unfortunately, they are also attempting to spend their surplus on the creation of a new military given the US demand for them to be in compliance with the 2% requirement, and they are spending their surplus on debt repayment so that they can be in compliance with the EU Commission requirement of no more than 60%.   Some economists argue that Germany’s surplus comes at a detriment for other EU countries whose markets are squeezed because of Germany’s low import strategy which, despite Merkel’s rhetoric, is a nationalist strategy.   Germany is actually on par with China, hypocritically claiming a global alliance effort, while supporting a nationalist economic Germany.   Greece and Italy suffer in particular.   But Germany’s imports are falling, its trade economy is faltering, and its ability to pay for all these welfare immigration costs is less likely.

Germany is also battling their policy of uniting unaccompanied immigrant minors with their extended families.  The same policies that the US battles.    It also follows that many immigrants claiming to be minors are actually considerably older, and thus not entitled to the unification.  In 2015, 95,000 unaccompanied minors applied for asylum, in 2016 it was 63,200, and in 2017 31,000 – 90% of which are males.    How many family members were they entitled to bring to Germany?

Without documentation, these Afghani’s and Eritreans that overwhelm the system claim they are under the age of 18 and therefore entitled by German law.  Backing off, Merkel has ordered her government to deny the reunification and is ordering Medical testing  to determine their true age.

With the radical islamafication movement within the EU, France is now facing the ultimate truism as they predict that many mayoral candidates in the 2022 cycle will be Salafi Muslims as entire districts and towns are majority Islam.

Arguments still abound regarding the net surplus these immigrants bring…  Arguing that tax revenues are increased as a result, the NET deficit in France was still $22 billion in 2009 and the argument is terribly poor because it does not consider the true ‘COSTS’!

Illegal immigrants in a district north of Paris now account for 20% of the population.   But it is illegal in France to identify a person by their status – so true numbers are virtually impossible to tabulate.   This same District has a 50% unemployment rate and the locals there blame France…for their predicament.

Macron’s solution?

Process them faster so they are no longer illegal.  As for the unemployment – education and language remain the deterrents.

It is interesting to read articles from four or five years ago wherein the immigration issue was a nonissue and the governments and respective media outlets were encouraging more and more, faster and faster, only to read articles today wherein the same governments, the same media outlets, decry the folly and are quick to label blame.

It is reminiscent of the Clinton and Obama reproach today of Trump’s anti policies only to find articles and videos in which they said the same thing against the illegal flux 3 – 5 – and even 10 years ago.  Odd those videos don’t seem to make it to the unbiased MSM?

It is why we need to claim history vehemently –  because it remains evidence.

Saudi’s Framed: Part II

The Middle East is its own power keg of rivalry, no different than various EU countries vying for power amid clashing political ideologies.   Saudi Arabia has imposed itself as the figurehead of the Middle East, much as Germany has pronounced itself as head honcho of the EU.  Saudi Arabia feels that unity is sacred, and when a child gets out of line, that child is sanctioned – Qatar.  Qatar is the rebel child.   The EU has its fair share of rebel children, but when children of these countries get out of line, it is not the business of the US to intervene.  So why would we intervene in the Middle East power struggle?

Placing the US in the position of reigning judgment on the politics of countries in the Middle East is a lose-lose scenario.

And thus, in the vein of ‘Follow The Money’, we are monetarily entrenched to Saudi Arabia – their trade and economic contributions to the US cannot be unraveled.   They have been decades in the making – Trump didn’t create them, but reality is – that’s the way it is now.   As Trump so politely emphasized, one Wapo reporter is not worth scrubbing a $110 billion Saudi deal.

On the table – $110 billion. Why are Democrats and a handful of McCainish Republicans willing to scrub that economic benefit to the US?  What does the Saudi arms deal mean and who does it benefit?

First:   A deal worth $110 billion is nothing to sneeze at – and if it is garnered by Trump, then the Liberals will do anything to uproot it in order to delegitimize Trump.   So a “Con” was created.  If Trump favors the Saudis, he’ll become media fodder in the UN Human Rights squash court –  If he dumps the Saudis, the US economy will tank.

But the con was sloppy. After all the anonymous evidence was found to be laughably faked, the only evidence left is a fuzzy video of Khashoggi entering the embassy – and gasp – no video of him exiting.   That doesn’t mean he didn’t exit – it simply means there is no video of it.

And as of right now that is the sum total of ‘evidence’ being used to convict the Saudis.

Second:   It sounds a lot like the Skripal poisoning evidence – Theresa May’s MI6 released video footage of two Russians walking down the street, the same week of the poisonings! GUILTY.

The Saudi con conveniently aligns with election time.  As did the Trump Dossier.  No coincidence there…   But given the sloppiness of the Saudi con, I would hope it wasn’t based out of MI6.

At any rate, the source at this point seems to be coming from Qatar and Al Jazeera.   The Qatar/Saudi row is waging large and in charge.   And a derailment with Saudis would mean a shift to ‘other countries’ in order to supply what is lost in Saudi trade.  Which can not happen because of the equities, treasuries and real estate holdings – way too complicated.

The amount of spending Qatar has with the US is a fragment of what Saudi Arabia contributes.   But the infighting is rooted in 1)  the Muslim Brotherhood – for which Qatar is entrenched, and  2) Iran – for which Qatar is aligned.  3) Khashoggi is head of the Muslim Brotherhood.

And therein is the core of the silly attempt to make a reporter possibly stage his own disappearance so as to ignite a war reminiscent of WWI wherein

“On 28 June 1914, Gavrilo Princip, a Bosnian  Serb Yugoslav nationalist, assassinated the Austro-Hungarian heir Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, leading to a diplomatic crisis.    On 23 July, Austria-Hungary issued an ultimatum to Serbia; interlocking alliances quickly drew in all the major European powers with their respective colonial empires and the conflict rapidly spread across the globe.”

Unfortunately, not unlike most edited fragments of history, even the insinuation of Princip as the assassin is subject to scrutiny.   Was he any more guilty than modern scape-goats and framed assassins?  I don’t know, another blog.

Ultimately, WWI was ignited by the death of one man and resulted in the casualties of over 40 million thereafter.

Who benefitted then is who would benefit now?

The war mongers:  The Banks.  The Cabal.  Pharmaceutical and military Corporations.   The drivers are estimated to count around 100,000.

Who loses?   Everyone else.

Why did this one death frame an entire World War?

World Wars I and II have been said to be rife with scandal and corruption, wars that could have easily been avoided, except for the Cabal’s influence.  The Federal Reserve and WWI were completely aligned.   The idea for WWIII has been levied for a number of years, and would certainly be fuel to a Liberal agenda for control, population eradication, and profit – the never-ending greed profile as defined in “Follow The Money”.

Back to the Saudis:   One thing that has become a mainstay of the liberal agenda is the fact that they draw their plots from history – as though they can’t create anything new or intelligent.   The rape agenda.   The false dossier agenda.   The hack.  Always the same, always leaving a trail of grease and smut.

So who would benefit from a derailment of the Saudi military agreements – Iran and  Qatar.  And all those who have aligned their investment interests $$$$$ in Iran based on the Iran Deal that was upended by Trump.  This would include Germany which is desperate to legitimize their trade and needs the bump in their economy.

While we are left with the redundant question – who would benefit from a disruption in Saudi-US relations – it is interesting to watch Rubio demand the new judicial decree ‘guilty until proven innocent’.  Where have we heard that before?  A sloppy con and a scream of guilty…Rubio just outed himself quite finely.

IMF: A Crumbling Figurehead

The IMF has lowered its global economic forecast citing as the main fault the US-China trade debacle. It stated that Germany would be hit particularly hard as well as a number of EU countries.   China and the US would also show slowed economies… China was slated to show a growth rate of 6.2% which was lower than the previous July at 6.4%, a minimal decrease. Bbut “Both” numbers are apparently the smallest growth since 1990.   That would indicate that the global growth rate was falling before the US trade war.

So how then can the US-China trade war be a consideration when it’s impact represents such a small reduction?

And is the IMF even an accurate ‘predictor’?

In 2013, Zero Hedge posted various graphs showing the IMF crystal ball predictions regarding World Growth, US Growth and China Growth.  The quarterly revisions for China resulted in an ultimate downgrade of roughly 1.5 percentage points, for the US .8 percentage points, and for the globe .5 percentage points, which extrapolate to a margin of error of a high of 17.2%.

Not exactly a stellar Economic Opinion.

But it also begs the question if the global rate is only 3.4% average and India and China are over 6% and 8%, that means the relative weight of the value of all goods and services is flat – and these spikes from various countries don’t really have much of an impact on the global worth.   While GDP rates are important on a country by country basis, the global rate is likely only significant when measuring those countries with the highest values when marking economic health.   For example if you have five companies each earning $1 billion, and a sixth company earning $1000, if the company earning $1000 is now earning 55% more or $1550 the global impact is not relevant.

Libya has the honor of checking in with the highest annual GDP rate 55.1%, followed by Ethiopia at  8.5% and a list of Asian and African countries that follow.  The US, China and parts of the EU remain a turtle’s pace, but the Tortoise still beat the Hare.

A study done by the Heritage Foundation between 1977 and 1998 in analyzing the reliability of the IMF predictions, found that the margin of error for developing countries was tied to IMF funding.  The bias stemmed from whether a country received IMF funding with over-estimation errors being the rule.

A quick glance at Germany reveals that imports and exports are slightly down this year compared to the previous year, and external debt is at an all time high.   These measurements came ‘before’ any US trade issues.   But those numbers are relatively mirror images of all the biggest value countries – debt is at an all time high, and trade is flat.

The final analysis by the Heritage Foundation:

WEO forecasts shows the prevalence of systematic turning point errors relative to the actual value. 14 These errors take the form of consistent under- and overestimation, which are pervasive in WEO projections for output growth, inflation, and balance of payments on the current account in both industrial countries and developing regions.

Turning point errors imply that the IMF forecasts fail to capture and include crucial economic events and shocks. This failure would weaken the IMF’s effectiveness because early diagnosis of its member countries’ vulnerabilities to potential crises is critical to fulfilling the IMF’s mandate of ensuring the international financial system’s stability. Tables 1a and 1b report the results of this analysis.

So why do we listen?  Why does the market react?  Why should we care?

Because we are ingrained to believe that the IMF has reliability when in reality – they don’t.  Markets are driven by factors more relevant to money supply and interest rate projections.  The IMF really has no power, they remain a figure head that has long outlasted their initial value.  Initially created to help countries balance exchange rates and provide short-term capital to balance payments, instead, today they are a dictatorship whereby developing countries sell their souls for loans they can’t repay.

In response to the flagrant corruption within the IMF, China created the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014, and the BRICS created the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement.

Ocotber 1st, the IMF appointed a new top Economist, Gita  Gopinath born in India, schooled at Princeton, teacher at Harvard, and student of Ben Bernanke.  She is responsible for over-seeing forecasts – predictions.  Her particular proficiency would seem to be currency movements, interestingly, the same market advocated by Soros.   She has stated that the movement of currency is faulty because it is invoiced in US dollars.

The dollar is still quite strong, but a shift is the agenda.