China/US Trade War Impacting EU Businesses?

USA Today is citing doom and gloom statistics as a direct result of the US-China trade war:   “China tariffs could force ‘widespread store closures’ and put $40 billion in sales at risk”.   “UBS claims that 12,000 stores are at risk. A record 8,139 stores closed in 2017, and another 5,864 in 2018”!

And The Sky Is Falling….

I imagine the numbers are absolutely correct, it is the reasoning that is ridiculously skewed. Clothing stores have been particularly at risk for a number of years now given that more and more people shop online.   Many offer free shipping, and some free returns.   This phenomena has caused retail outlets to shutter and the trend is likely to continue with or without China tariffs.

So why would USA Today create a false narrative?

The article is written by Kelly Tyko a self described ‘Bargainista’ who typically writes about where to find the best deals. Really. Need I say more.   It is blatantly inaccurate, and shows a hideous lack of economic insight, while bludgeoning the reputation of USA Today.

In fact, UBS has stated that adjustments to portfolios need not be radical but prudent as they are convinced a deal will be made.

Equally flagrant in promoting an anti-Trump/anti-US posit is Germany’s Deutsche Welle: “One Third of EU Firms Hit Hard By US/China Trade War”.   Cited by the European Union Chamber of Commerce In China.

Established in 2000, this European Chamber is an NGO representing 1600 companies within the EU doing business in China. Their Secretary General, Adam Dunnett, provided a much more interesting and pragmatic perspective on China and doing business in China:

The purpose of the NGO is to create a better market access and business environment with China overall.   According to Dunnett, European investment in China has been steadily decreasing for the past four years. Reforms within the Chinese economy have occurred most recently in the past two years, but the EU companies say it is likely too little, too late, and the positive impact on their businesses has been negligible.   When asked if the reforms instituted by Xi Jinping had encouraged them to invest more in China, the overwhelming response was – No.   EU businesses were already tilting away given that China’s closed door policies caused delays, shred profits, and left a bitter taste.   As such, 5% of businesses simply left for the more lucrative markets in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore.

When asked about the US/China trade war, Dunnett was quite straightforward and rational:   While the impact has affected 50% of the EU businesses, he also stated that, “The frustrations felt by the US, related to reciprocity, IPR infringements, and technology transfer obligations, are by no means new issues – the European Chamber has been raising them consistently for the last 15 years.”

Dunnett goes on to discuss problematics in China’s pharmaceutical policies that have inherent negative consequences on EU businesses – irrespective of the US trade war.

In essence, he appears to quite understand the US position, and recognizes that it is a necessity in order to officiate fair trade in the future.   He sees the current market environment in China as hopeful, but restrains promotion given it remains too restrictive in the present.  As such, he supports moving businesses to more free economies.

Will the trade war impact US businesses? Likely. But the mess that created such a massive trade imbalance ricocheted like crazy rising 400% between 2004 and 2018. TO do nothing would be reprehensible!

Ultimately, as Romney pointed out when he deigned to be President, China is buying our country, and owns our debt.  This is accomplished through trade imbalances.   If that is a good thing – then move to China. Unfortunately, Romney proved to be a false Republican, a McCainer surrounded by Swamp reptiles.  Still, he was correct with regard to China.

At least Adam Dunnett speaks from sensibility and reality. Hopefully, USA Today and Deutsche Welle will hire actual journalists to report on the global economics, instead of Bargainistas and Soros plebes.

IRAN WAR IMMINENT! Says MSM

No one seems to know how much money Iran received as a result of Obama’s Nuclear Deal.   One would think that such information could easily be accessible, however, estimates are broad, anywhere from $74 billion according to Iran’s Central Bank, to $150 billion according to conservative sources. The money that was frozen in various accounts around the world had sat for 25 years accruing interest.

For example, the US held $400 million cash since 1990 which accrued $1.3 billion in interest according to ‘negotiators’.   That would calculate to an interest rate of 13%. Obviously the ‘negotiators’ were anti-US.

Problem is, now that the major Russiagate agenda came up dry, Trump is ramped into 5th gear and apparently, there were some rather major infractions attributable to Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal.

According to The Washington Post, Obama personally attempted to coerce two American banks to launder the payments to Iran despite the fact that the Deal specifically prohibited any type of transactions between Iran and the US. Obama then lied to Congress about this side deal.   This also implicates Jack Lew, Obama’s Treasury Secretary who told the same thing to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Obama also gave unlimited ‘future’ deposit access to bank Muscat in Oman via a license issued through Obama and OFAC.   Obama then told Congress he had issued no license, thereby lying during Congressional Testimony.

In other words, the Iran deal was all about money for Obama, for companies yanking at the bit wanting to industrialize Iran, and for the probable kickbacks that were likely flying every which way.   Kickbacks that would need to be ‘laundered’, and the banks that complied.

When Trump undid the Iran deal, there were a lot of angry people who had already tooled up.

And I imagine they wanted their kickback money – back.

And Iran – wasn’t happy.

The Deal was tainted, it was subversive, and it was tyranny. And Obama could be prosecuted.

As punishment, Iran has ramped up aggression toward Israel, held multiple missile exercises, deployed ships into the Gulf, and basically flexed its muscle. But the media want a war. And like WWI and WWII, a propaganda default was used to instigate the first shot, knowing that it would resound around the world. And retaliation would likely be the course of action.

But both Khamenei and Trump have unequivocally stated that neither wants a war.  They want a real Deal, one that is not created illegally.   One that is not corrupted. The ruffled feathers, the blood sport of a cockfight has just begun. Renegotiating could mean we forfeit the exorbitant interest rate Obama threw away – as a toss. It is in the past. A classic negotiating carrot.

Relations with Russia have already begun a fast forward pulse given Trump is cleared of Russiagate.   Trade talks with a faltering China economy are ongoing, and Europe is simultaneously demonizing the US, China, Russia alliance, while dervishly attempting to cultivate their own wolf/sheep in China – and Russia!

Having controlled the global spacecraft for decades, the EU, specifically England, Germany and France, are frantic as their power plummets under the Trump effect. Their economies are on a pinky swear away from recession, they have no military, no defense, and stubbornly refuse to admit they are corrupt when The People are quite aware.   What they leave behind as they walk away from their posts is nothing less than ‘chaos’.

The scapegoats will likely be paraded for the world while Obama, Hillary and Holder go into deep hiding.   The mental awareness of Soros is questionable, and his son, Alex, while trained well, does not exert the influence. Businesses, countries, and politicians, will watch the play from the sidelines as they are flake flakey enough so as to wait to root for the ‘winner’.   Thus, preserving the almighty – self.

In the meantime, attempting to sway public opinion and declare that Trump intends to go to war with Iran, the MSM are grappling at frayed rags because they haven’t anything else left.

When the mantra is that Trump is going after journalism freedom, the media conveniently forget what journalism ‘is’.   Today, The Washington Post, and The New York Times, among hundreds, are the equivalent to the National Enquirer.   Those same reporters used to belittle and toss caustic insults at the lack of journalism espoused by them only to become those they ridiculed.

Perhaps it is like Congress wherein a work week is composed of roughly 15 hours, and pretty soon Senators and Congressmen will have “adversity” scores like colleges, and votes will be tabulated with a + or – adversity.   You may have 25% of the votes, but your demographic adversity allows you a bonus of 15%…

China Trade War – MSM Playing The Wizard Of Oz…

CNBC’s Emma Newberger has published an article claiming that Goldman Sachs the has stated; “cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households…”   Goldman says there are two very detailed, item level studies that prove that Chinese imports remain at the same price. In addition, the US GDP could be hit by a .4% decline.

I suppose to some this sounds devastating. But when analyzed just a bit, the entire article is misleading at best, an illusion, and a tactical study in propaganda at the very least.

The article does not provide any link to any studies. It cites no statistics.   There is no historical graph.   In fact, it is red Jello with absolutely no cherries. Hospital food.

Between 2016 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index, before the levy of ANY tariffs, rose 2.1%.   In 2018, the CPI increased 1.9%.   Between 1970 and 2018, the CPI rose 25% with a starting point of -10%.   This increase coincides with the increase in the ‘money supply’ which doubled into Nirvana land during the Obama administration.

As for the US GDP rate, in 2017 it was 2.3%. In 2018, GDP increased to 2.9%. And in the first quarter of 2019, it increased 3.2%.   A .4% decline from the previous year would amount to a total reduction of .0116 resulting in a new rate of 3.18%.

Just three months ago, the very liberal CNN authored a story in which they claim that “the Chinese economy has slowed severely.   It has hit its lowest level in three years.   And it is much, much weaker than government figures suggest.” Local businesses blame the trade wars.   Senior China economist at Capital Economics claims the economy of China shrank 3% last year making the Goldman Sachs argument smell like a dairy farm.

The problem with the media is they do not have the power to ‘delete’ history, and so instead they attempt to rewrite it.   But a five minute research by anyone can quite literally unfold the truth and reveal a plethora of lies. In politics, they call them ‘gaffes’.   In the media, they are fake news.

Goldman Sachs is thus guilty of – fake news.

Barron’s claims that the US economy is slowing down. They site different methodologies for measuring the growth and choose to eliminate certain ones so as to lower the actual numbers.   But a measurement is only so good as it’s comparable historical measure. To conveniently eliminate certain industries because they might ‘artificially inflate’ the number means one would have to eliminate those numbers for all history. It is a defeating argument, designed to manipulate and propagandize the economy.

In essence, when analyzing the manufacturing industry of the US, Barron’s has determined that the current outlook is ‘half as bad’ as the decline from 2014-2016 during the Obama reign.

All numbers are intertwined.   If economists are going to extrapolate specific numbers without looking at the whole, then there will always be fluctuations, but the whole is the ultimate grade of an economy, not the individual parts.

The Gestalt theory, expressed in psychological terms in the 1920’s, understood that the whole is a sum of the parts.   Thus extracting ‘a part’ denies the whole. My father named his sailboat, “Gestalt”.

If one reviews the news from farmer and agriculture sites, as opposed to political news sites, the concerns are not so much China as: weather, disease, techniques, herbicides, trends, organics, toxicity, soil – all the normal discussions among those inside the industry.

What they aren’t discussing is – China.

What this reveals is that the MSM is manufacturing a Farming crisis without a farmer, they are creating an Economic crisis without a study or statistic, and they are creating an illusion without – magic.

In fact, the MSM is no different than the Wizard of Oz, a slight, old man, standing behind a great curtain, using machines to create smoke and noise so as to scare Dorothy and her companions, when in fact, there is nothing wrong – at all – and they all can find what they want inside themselves without the idiotic, narcissist behind the curtain.

POOF….