CNBC’s Emma Newberger has published an article claiming that Goldman Sachs the has stated; “cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households…” Goldman says there are two very detailed, item level studies that prove that Chinese imports remain at the same price. In addition, the US GDP could be hit by a .4% decline.
I suppose to some this sounds devastating. But when analyzed just a bit, the entire article is misleading at best, an illusion, and a tactical study in propaganda at the very least.
The article does not provide any link to any studies. It cites no statistics. There is no historical graph. In fact, it is red Jello with absolutely no cherries. Hospital food.
Between 2016 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index, before the levy of ANY tariffs, rose 2.1%. In 2018, the CPI increased 1.9%. Between 1970 and 2018, the CPI rose 25% with a starting point of -10%. This increase coincides with the increase in the ‘money supply’ which doubled into Nirvana land during the Obama administration.
As for the US GDP rate, in 2017 it was 2.3%. In 2018, GDP increased to 2.9%. And in the first quarter of 2019, it increased 3.2%. A .4% decline from the previous year would amount to a total reduction of .0116 resulting in a new rate of 3.18%.
Just three months ago, the very liberal CNN authored a story in which they claim that “the Chinese economy has slowed severely. It has hit its lowest level in three years. And it is much, much weaker than government figures suggest.” Local businesses blame the trade wars. Senior China economist at Capital Economics claims the economy of China shrank 3% last year making the Goldman Sachs argument smell like a dairy farm.
The problem with the media is they do not have the power to ‘delete’ history, and so instead they attempt to rewrite it. But a five minute research by anyone can quite literally unfold the truth and reveal a plethora of lies. In politics, they call them ‘gaffes’. In the media, they are fake news.
Goldman Sachs is thus guilty of – fake news.
Barron’s claims that the US economy is slowing down. They site different methodologies for measuring the growth and choose to eliminate certain ones so as to lower the actual numbers. But a measurement is only so good as it’s comparable historical measure. To conveniently eliminate certain industries because they might ‘artificially inflate’ the number means one would have to eliminate those numbers for all history. It is a defeating argument, designed to manipulate and propagandize the economy.
In essence, when analyzing the manufacturing industry of the US, Barron’s has determined that the current outlook is ‘half as bad’ as the decline from 2014-2016 during the Obama reign.
All numbers are intertwined. If economists are going to extrapolate specific numbers without looking at the whole, then there will always be fluctuations, but the whole is the ultimate grade of an economy, not the individual parts.
The Gestalt theory, expressed in psychological terms in the 1920’s, understood that the whole is a sum of the parts. Thus extracting ‘a part’ denies the whole. My father named his sailboat, “Gestalt”.
If one reviews the news from farmer and agriculture sites, as opposed to political news sites, the concerns are not so much China as: weather, disease, techniques, herbicides, trends, organics, toxicity, soil – all the normal discussions among those inside the industry.
What they aren’t discussing is – China.
What this reveals is that the MSM is manufacturing a Farming crisis without a farmer, they are creating an Economic crisis without a study or statistic, and they are creating an illusion without – magic.
In fact, the MSM is no different than the Wizard of Oz, a slight, old man, standing behind a great curtain, using machines to create smoke and noise so as to scare Dorothy and her companions, when in fact, there is nothing wrong – at all – and they all can find what they want inside themselves without the idiotic, narcissist behind the curtain.