China/US Trade War Impacting EU Businesses?

USA Today is citing doom and gloom statistics as a direct result of the US-China trade war:   “China tariffs could force ‘widespread store closures’ and put $40 billion in sales at risk”.   “UBS claims that 12,000 stores are at risk. A record 8,139 stores closed in 2017, and another 5,864 in 2018”!

And The Sky Is Falling….

I imagine the numbers are absolutely correct, it is the reasoning that is ridiculously skewed. Clothing stores have been particularly at risk for a number of years now given that more and more people shop online.   Many offer free shipping, and some free returns.   This phenomena has caused retail outlets to shutter and the trend is likely to continue with or without China tariffs.

So why would USA Today create a false narrative?

The article is written by Kelly Tyko a self described ‘Bargainista’ who typically writes about where to find the best deals. Really. Need I say more.   It is blatantly inaccurate, and shows a hideous lack of economic insight, while bludgeoning the reputation of USA Today.

In fact, UBS has stated that adjustments to portfolios need not be radical but prudent as they are convinced a deal will be made.

Equally flagrant in promoting an anti-Trump/anti-US posit is Germany’s Deutsche Welle: “One Third of EU Firms Hit Hard By US/China Trade War”.   Cited by the European Union Chamber of Commerce In China.

Established in 2000, this European Chamber is an NGO representing 1600 companies within the EU doing business in China. Their Secretary General, Adam Dunnett, provided a much more interesting and pragmatic perspective on China and doing business in China:

The purpose of the NGO is to create a better market access and business environment with China overall.   According to Dunnett, European investment in China has been steadily decreasing for the past four years. Reforms within the Chinese economy have occurred most recently in the past two years, but the EU companies say it is likely too little, too late, and the positive impact on their businesses has been negligible.   When asked if the reforms instituted by Xi Jinping had encouraged them to invest more in China, the overwhelming response was – No.   EU businesses were already tilting away given that China’s closed door policies caused delays, shred profits, and left a bitter taste.   As such, 5% of businesses simply left for the more lucrative markets in Australia, Vietnam and Singapore.

When asked about the US/China trade war, Dunnett was quite straightforward and rational:   While the impact has affected 50% of the EU businesses, he also stated that, “The frustrations felt by the US, related to reciprocity, IPR infringements, and technology transfer obligations, are by no means new issues – the European Chamber has been raising them consistently for the last 15 years.”

Dunnett goes on to discuss problematics in China’s pharmaceutical policies that have inherent negative consequences on EU businesses – irrespective of the US trade war.

In essence, he appears to quite understand the US position, and recognizes that it is a necessity in order to officiate fair trade in the future.   He sees the current market environment in China as hopeful, but restrains promotion given it remains too restrictive in the present.  As such, he supports moving businesses to more free economies.

Will the trade war impact US businesses? Likely. But the mess that created such a massive trade imbalance ricocheted like crazy rising 400% between 2004 and 2018. TO do nothing would be reprehensible!

Ultimately, as Romney pointed out when he deigned to be President, China is buying our country, and owns our debt.  This is accomplished through trade imbalances.   If that is a good thing – then move to China. Unfortunately, Romney proved to be a false Republican, a McCainer surrounded by Swamp reptiles.  Still, he was correct with regard to China.

At least Adam Dunnett speaks from sensibility and reality. Hopefully, USA Today and Deutsche Welle will hire actual journalists to report on the global economics, instead of Bargainistas and Soros plebes.

China Trade War – MSM Playing The Wizard Of Oz…

CNBC’s Emma Newberger has published an article claiming that Goldman Sachs the has stated; “cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households…”   Goldman says there are two very detailed, item level studies that prove that Chinese imports remain at the same price. In addition, the US GDP could be hit by a .4% decline.

I suppose to some this sounds devastating. But when analyzed just a bit, the entire article is misleading at best, an illusion, and a tactical study in propaganda at the very least.

The article does not provide any link to any studies. It cites no statistics.   There is no historical graph.   In fact, it is red Jello with absolutely no cherries. Hospital food.

Between 2016 and 2017, the Consumer Price Index, before the levy of ANY tariffs, rose 2.1%.   In 2018, the CPI increased 1.9%.   Between 1970 and 2018, the CPI rose 25% with a starting point of -10%.   This increase coincides with the increase in the ‘money supply’ which doubled into Nirvana land during the Obama administration.

As for the US GDP rate, in 2017 it was 2.3%. In 2018, GDP increased to 2.9%. And in the first quarter of 2019, it increased 3.2%.   A .4% decline from the previous year would amount to a total reduction of .0116 resulting in a new rate of 3.18%.

Just three months ago, the very liberal CNN authored a story in which they claim that “the Chinese economy has slowed severely.   It has hit its lowest level in three years.   And it is much, much weaker than government figures suggest.” Local businesses blame the trade wars.   Senior China economist at Capital Economics claims the economy of China shrank 3% last year making the Goldman Sachs argument smell like a dairy farm.

The problem with the media is they do not have the power to ‘delete’ history, and so instead they attempt to rewrite it.   But a five minute research by anyone can quite literally unfold the truth and reveal a plethora of lies. In politics, they call them ‘gaffes’.   In the media, they are fake news.

Goldman Sachs is thus guilty of – fake news.

Barron’s claims that the US economy is slowing down. They site different methodologies for measuring the growth and choose to eliminate certain ones so as to lower the actual numbers.   But a measurement is only so good as it’s comparable historical measure. To conveniently eliminate certain industries because they might ‘artificially inflate’ the number means one would have to eliminate those numbers for all history. It is a defeating argument, designed to manipulate and propagandize the economy.

In essence, when analyzing the manufacturing industry of the US, Barron’s has determined that the current outlook is ‘half as bad’ as the decline from 2014-2016 during the Obama reign.

All numbers are intertwined.   If economists are going to extrapolate specific numbers without looking at the whole, then there will always be fluctuations, but the whole is the ultimate grade of an economy, not the individual parts.

The Gestalt theory, expressed in psychological terms in the 1920’s, understood that the whole is a sum of the parts.   Thus extracting ‘a part’ denies the whole. My father named his sailboat, “Gestalt”.

If one reviews the news from farmer and agriculture sites, as opposed to political news sites, the concerns are not so much China as: weather, disease, techniques, herbicides, trends, organics, toxicity, soil – all the normal discussions among those inside the industry.

What they aren’t discussing is – China.

What this reveals is that the MSM is manufacturing a Farming crisis without a farmer, they are creating an Economic crisis without a study or statistic, and they are creating an illusion without – magic.

In fact, the MSM is no different than the Wizard of Oz, a slight, old man, standing behind a great curtain, using machines to create smoke and noise so as to scare Dorothy and her companions, when in fact, there is nothing wrong – at all – and they all can find what they want inside themselves without the idiotic, narcissist behind the curtain.

POOF….

CHINA Economy Spiraling! Germany Stalling! US Economy Flying!

China’s stock market has slid nearly 23% in one year.   While some economists would shout out Trump and the trade was as the causal factor, the downward trend began six months before the trade war began.  And it isn’t looking likely to shift anywhere positive. Estimates put a $5 trillion devaluation on Asian companies over the last year.  And while some economics point to a thriving housing market as a vestige of prosperity – think again.

Property speculation has been huge in China with short term flips of entire apartment buildings generating new millionaires.   It was easy money, until it wasn’t.

Developers are dropping prices by as much as 20-30%.  The flippers are caught in the middle with massive loans and a panic is brewing.  Property protests are the new norm and property owners are demanding companies compensate for the rapid decline.

While government data suggests the property market is up 7%, reality begs a completely different picture. Where does the truthful information generate from – blogs.  Economists and banks are more concerned with blocking the information given a panic could spiral China’s fragile economy out of control.

China’s largest developer, Vanke, actually compensated property owners with cash and new vehicles in an effort to quell the protests after their decision to drop prices by 33%.  Vanke’s Chairman Yu Liang told staff last month that “survival” was the ultimate goal for the developer over the next year, adding that the property market’s “turning point has really arrived.”

The concern is that the heavily indebted developers could go belly up creating a banking crisis.

When Trump initiated the tariff dispute, the economic fragility of China was known.  He put President Xi Jinping in a precarious position, and Xi Jinping fell into the hole of ego.   It has long been the consensus that China never reveals true numbers, manipulation has been the norm.  But Trump is a businessman, and caught off guard, Jinping did not know how best to negotiate and instead created a greater downward spiral.

Germany too is seeing the results of their refusal to bargain.   Add to the tension that Merkel took a lone stand in tabling trade with Saudi Arabia as the Khashoggi death is unwound, Germany’s economy splintered further.  Germany faltering translates to an EU spiraling.  German banks are also testing economic stability as fraud and corruption is revealed among the bigger Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank and stiff fines are sure to contract profits.

And while German trade continues to ramp a surplus, it comes at a cost to every other EU member who rely on their exports, i.e. Germany’s imports, to keep their heads above water.   Germany has become exactly what they accuse the Trump administration of adhering to – ‘Nationalism’.  Willing to let their EU partners stumble and fall, Germany is looking to support one country – Germany.

Like China’s Xi Jinping, Merkel is in a hole of ego.  Having no business acumen, she is at a loss of how to respond, how to negotiate, how come to the bargaining table.

By contrast, the US economy is growing and strong.  Reinvented by policies of individual and corporate tax reductions, legislation reducing regulations, and energy production, the Trump guidebook is working.

Slaying the demons with a sword in one hand, Trump inspires and reignites hope and faith with his Olympic torch in the other hand.  We know it is working when the barbs fly relentlessly.  We know it is working when every MSM plugs a slew of defamation that has no basis.  

We know it is working because the numbers don’t lie.

China- The Global Winner…it is done

China is quietly spending valuable time and money building an empire while the US spends its time and money destroying countries, having glitzy parties, and complaining.  And yet, we still decry – NO FAIR – and vie to slow down China!    Hmmm.

China’s President Xi Jinping has historic meetings with David Cameron, Zuckerberg, US billionaires, Taiwan President, Francois Hollande, he visits Seattle, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Switzerland, Prague, Japan, Djibouti, Egypt, Venezuela, Australia, etc… all within the last 18 months. All for one purpose – to sign lucrative business contracts and thus expand China’s economy.

While President Obama has traveled to Paris for the Climate Summit, as well as Kenya and Turkey and the Philippines – his trips were simply to talk to them and tell them how their governments needed to be ‘better’, needed to adhere to climate standards and stop all that nasty corruption stuff. No contracts. No business. No expansion – just a gnarly finger chastising like a bully father to his son. He visited factories and schools talking about gun control and free education and Black rights, and of course there were all the Democrat fundraising events…yawn.

But no business and no contracts and no expansion of the US economy.  There were no deals made, no bringing business into the US, no resolved tax structures, just an ever increasing Offshore Investment strategy to further the demise of the US economy… 

Politicians love to commiserate over the inequality of China’s trade, citing such affirmative stances as ‘Unfair’, and ‘We need to…’ – but in reality the backdoor dealings recognize China is where the money is and therefore – China is making leaps and bounds.

When running for President, Romney routinely demonized the unfair advantage China has taken in business – but when he was called out for his own investment in Chinese firms, his response was to lash out at Obama and ask him to be transparent about his!   In fact, he called out Obama for having ownership in a Cayman Island Trust – as in Offshore.  As in oops.  As in – How Quickly We Forget…

How quickly we forget:   in 2013 it was reported that Obama’s nominees Michael Froman economic advisor to US Trade, Penny Pritzker Secretary of Commerce, and Jack Lew Secretary of Treasury – ALL had offshore accounts in the Caymans.  Did they have any legal consequence?  Nah.  Ethical consequences?  Nah.

The reality is this:

China now has more billionaires than the US.

China’s economy determines the global economy.

China is expected to invest $30 billion in the US for 2016 alone.

China’s growth rate for 2015 was 6.9% – despite catastrophic claims by our media.

Chinese exports are surging while imports are dropping. Trade surplus as of March was $30 billion.

The Great and Powerful US?

We have a trade “deficit” – over $34 billion and a 2015 growth rate of 2.4%. Maybe we need to focus our concerns back where they should be – US.

In locating the US companies doing business in China – as in having their manufacturing plants there, the list was so long that getting through the A’s was tedious and included heavy weights like AT&T, Abbot Labs, AIG Financial, and Audi Motors. Companies go there because they are given tax advantages, and incentives.

There have been Chinese manufacturing plants in the US as well, but they are not fairing as well. Why? Because the Chinese believe that employees should actually take direction from management and supervisors – apparently a concept no longer recognized in the US. Instead, they find American workers unable to take direction, unable to follow rules, and lacking in that age old notion ‘respect’. As a result, the Chinese are turning more toward buyouts and real estate investments – as in the purchase of the Waldorf Astoria in Manhattan.  These investments don’t create jobs, they simply re-distribute US assets.

By contrast, US companies are complaining about their businesses in China because labor prices are increasing, there is a shortage of labor – as in everyone is working, competition with Chinese companies – as in ‘I wanted a monopoly’, and less corruption – as in “I can’t buy the government’.

What this reveals? Our system is broken.

Instead of raising money for elections, maybe our president should raise more investment.

Instead of talking to schools about our failures, maybe our president should hit the global highway and create success.

Instead of talking about the poor black slaves, maybe our president should address the black crime rate statistics and work to ‘change’ that statistic.

Instead of demonizing countries, maybe our president should embrace trade pacts and contracts. Instead of allowing for the rampant fraud and corruption within the government and all it’s institutions, maybe our president should look to how China has cracked the whip –

Instead of attending glitzy Hollywood events, doing selfies, and forging on lavish vacations, at the taxpayers expense, maybe our president could actually conduct – business – for The People and By The People.

CHINA – The Next Soros Bad Boy!

Soros has de-graced himself further by declaring a financial war on China. After heating up and then collapsing the economy in Brazil, over-throwing the government in Ukraine, prodding the Arab Spring, and instigating a personal vendetta against Russia, he has set his sights on China. A large task to be sure, however I would venture that President Xi Jinping is more than up to the task. Formidable opponents to be sure! And opponents have a tendency to gather strength in combining their efforts – a threat that could be even more worrisome as the lines of division are marked in red.

Having ‘ordered’ Merkel to take in 1 million refugees just months ago, he is now making media history stating the migrant crisis in Europe is the catalyst for the ultimate Fall of Europe – which he states is imminent. Having dumped most of his remaining oil and gas shares last December, I can’t imagine he made much gain on that slew of transactions – a bit too late? His biggest weights? Healthcare (that’s an easy one), Services and Technology. His biggest holding? Adecoagro SA, a farming company operating in Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil… Since last August, it’s price has more than doubled. Coincidence? No. It is about perceived future food shortages and ethanol!

While Russia and Brazil have declared their desire to regain/remain allegiance with Europe and the US, Soros rumbles, roars and connives holding the puppets Obama, Hillary and Cameron on marionette strings. He lures war.

Having launched a media blitz attack on Putin and Russia, China is now the new bad boy and I imagine we will begin hearing frenzied reports of their actions, inactions, and potential escapades inciting war. Wiping his hands, he has declared Brazil dead, Russia nearly dead, and China, Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore the next victims. Quite a haul!

And while headlines declare China is rattling the world, is that really the indicator, or is Soros rattling the world? Headlines, unfortunately lie pathologically, indiscriminately. Various media outlets claim that the Chinese yuan is over valued, so a 10% drop is recommended – by those in competition, ie, the US and Europe.

Interestingly, China accuses Soros of attempting to devalue its currency in a bid to create a classic Soros bubble – aka, as in breaking the bank of England. So while the press would presuppose that China is misleading, China claims that Soros is playing parcheesie with their currency, and warns Soros to keep his dirty hands out of their pocket…

A threat not without consequences.

So what the heck is really going on?

Well, Soros is a currency speculator, creator of chaos, with a known vendetta against – well – the world. When other’s find great joy in hiking, biking, triathlons, making bread, or drinking Marguerita’s, Soros finds joy in destruction. That’s his thing. In his journey he has accumulated thousands upon thousands of NGO’s to do his bidding, including – the media. As such, there is a ‘slight’ deviance between reality and Soros.

While the drop in the yuan is a mere 5% since August 2015, the news would have us believe it is catastrophic. Interestingly, the Euro has dropped over 25% in the same time period and no one mentions a thing.

Meanwhile, China is boosting it’s military presence in the South China Sea, Obama urges ‘restraint’. Simultaneously, Obama is boosting military missile defense systems in Korea, pressing NATO to boost it’s military presence throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics…, and announcing increased presence of the US military in Europe. It is a game of boost. Chests are pounding in a match for match tit-for-tat that is very likely to implode.

And as the media focuses on the US presidential run, the economy is wavering dangerously close to a new recession as cited by The Federal Reserve, IMF, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank and The Fosler Group, LLC. While Japan and the Euro Zone have fudged into negative interest rate territory, the US may need to do a bit of reconnoitering.

China Flogging – A Media Pastime

Listening to various media outlets vilify China has become an international pastime. The Chinese government is blamed for everything from the US economic woes, to the global wavering, to the housing crisis, to instigation of all confrontations with Japan. They are at once called on to stabilize the world and at the same time demonized for not doing it in such a way that the US and Europe are the primary recipients of prosperity.

I hear pundits criticizing the Chinese government for not knowing how to stabilize the world economy, when their economic growth has outpaced every other nation for the last ten years!

And while the government is saddled with the job of stabilizing our current market wallops, the media picks and prods as though this is a singular effort.  Fox News, O’Reilly went so far as to scoff at the name of the President of China as though he and no one else should deem the name worthy of their memory…  What?  Childish bully tactics.  In addition, he grossly misstated a claim that all historical wars and conflicts between Japan and China were instigated by China and won by Japan.  Ouch!

We rely on China to bolster our economy, to give us cheap goods, to drive up oil prices for our benefit, to keep the dollar strong, and then drag them through the mud if they miss a step.

Why?

The truth of the history behind China and Japan is interesting. Similar to the Iran-Iraq war in which Iraq was the provocateur and yet Iran was labeled the evil empire, China has a similar history with Japan.

The first recorded conflict between Japan and China was in 663 AD in which Japan was the aggressor seeking to invade Korea and China. Japan was defeated roundly! The second large scale aggression was in the 16th century and again Japan was the aggressor seeking land and power. They invasion was successful initially given it’s surprise manipulation, but ultimately once again Japan was defeated.

The late 1800’s again saw Japan attempt to ignite war when it set its sights on capturing Korea and Taiwan. And in the 1930’s the Japanese invaded Manchuria. In was during this time period that the Japanese were involved in contentious war crimes including looting, rape, civilian massacres, and medical atrocities in which millions of Chinese civilians were murdered.

In 1938, the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor and became a part of WWII. Their treatment of prisoners of war was heinous, terrorizing and disgustingly brutal.

And yet, our memories are short and our media would have us believe that the tensions and wars between China and Japan were inflamed by the Chinese. Not so. The importance of the written word is sacrosanct. Without it, the carelessly false and deceit impregnated by the press might actually appear to be truth.

Certainly there are despicable stories regarding China’s history, US history, UK history, Spain’s history, Russian history, etc…, but altering history is a dangerous precedent. And while I have no desire whatsoever to become a citizen of Iran or China, relaying the truth is necessary to a global society wishing to evolve while holding to ethics, morality and intellect. Lying has no place in that past, present or future.

So if you are looking to China to save the world, I would suggest demonizing will not produce the desired results.

China vs US – While Nero Watched Rome Burned

A new world order is being created, but it isn’t here. While the US, Canada and Europe squabble and promote division in every corner of the world, there is a quiet, under-reported affiliation that is taking root. China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa are forming an allegiance of cooperation and growth. While they may have tensions, they are attempting to rise above those age old embitterments and focus on something far more important – patriotic commitment.

What would happen if the US blew a giant hole in its relations with China?

As the second largest economy in the world, China is at the forefront in growing internal relations, trade, and a more diversified economic profile as oil has remained relatively flat. While the US continues it’s bizarre strategy of making unproven claims regarding a hack as being fomented by the Chinese government, and puffing their proverbial rooster chest at the South China Sea, the Chinese continue their strategy of the tortoise and the hare.

The BRICS do have power, and it is growing. Who are they opposing? NATO, UN, The World Bank and the IMF. These outdated, corrupted agencies are set to fall as a re-organization of power shifts.

NATO: China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa are not members of NATO.

UN: China and Russia have recently aligned in their stance within the UN. Their agenda? Sovereignty. The right of other countries to not have the will of the UN or other countries placed on them via regime change and/or orchestrated coup. Unfortunately, Samantha Power used that statement by Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, as a stage to tweet, “Too often govts use it (sovereignty)as a shield behind which they commit atrocities—WW2&Rwanda show peril of looking away.” In other words, Samantha Power arrogantly implied that Wang was lying and that the US is simply policing countries for their own good.

This does not make for a good allegiance with China and speaks volumes at the lacking integrity of Samantha Powers as a person in a position of power.  She has no clue what diplomacy means.

World Bank: The BRICS are slated to open their alternative to the World Bank this year – New Development Bank. The purpose is similar to the World Bank but with a redistribution of power to the founding members. The NDB comes on the heals of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which was also established by the BRICS. Despite scoffing by the US, the AIIB has pulled in 57 members including; Most of Europe, The Middle East, South America, Most of Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and The Philippines. Three notable nations have refused – US, Canada and Japan.

By holding to ideologies that belong in antiquity, the US has managed to propel itself into a spiraling decay of power. A short sighted view, by not becoming a member nation, the US can now never hold the same member power in the AIIB even if it later decided to join.

IMF: The US, UK, Germany and France combined hold about 32% of all the votes in the IMF. Despite China’s attempts to gain greater voting power, ultimately, they felt snubbed. And as we speak, China is pressuring the IMF to recognize the yuan as an international currency on par with the dollar and euro.

While the US fallback is to demonize, the world is changing and the American public is left uninformed, puppets in the hands of the masters. Russia is and has been a diversion. The Middle East is in the midst of a re-organization proxy for the takeover by Saudi Arabia. Creating more demons than allies the US will be left with a bankrupt NATO, IMF, UN and World Bank. Focus on a demon and watch as the US slides down an economic hole from which there is no recovery.

Reading comments by Soros, his opinion varies nearly month to month. From a stance of arrogance, to a stance of China being the model world government, to warning of a China meltdown, to recommending joining China, to investing in Chinese stocks, to instigating protests in Hong Kong, to a stance of predicting WWIII. Ultimately, the US was always the greatest obstacle to Soros’ agenda for a One World Order.

While Nero watched, Rome burned.