IMF: A Crumbling Figurehead

The IMF has lowered its global economic forecast citing as the main fault the US-China trade debacle. It stated that Germany would be hit particularly hard as well as a number of EU countries.   China and the US would also show slowed economies… China was slated to show a growth rate of 6.2% which was lower than the previous July at 6.4%, a minimal decrease. Bbut “Both” numbers are apparently the smallest growth since 1990.   That would indicate that the global growth rate was falling before the US trade war.

So how then can the US-China trade war be a consideration when it’s impact represents such a small reduction?

And is the IMF even an accurate ‘predictor’?

In 2013, Zero Hedge posted various graphs showing the IMF crystal ball predictions regarding World Growth, US Growth and China Growth.  The quarterly revisions for China resulted in an ultimate downgrade of roughly 1.5 percentage points, for the US .8 percentage points, and for the globe .5 percentage points, which extrapolate to a margin of error of a high of 17.2%.

Not exactly a stellar Economic Opinion.

But it also begs the question if the global rate is only 3.4% average and India and China are over 6% and 8%, that means the relative weight of the value of all goods and services is flat – and these spikes from various countries don’t really have much of an impact on the global worth.   While GDP rates are important on a country by country basis, the global rate is likely only significant when measuring those countries with the highest values when marking economic health.   For example if you have five companies each earning $1 billion, and a sixth company earning $1000, if the company earning $1000 is now earning 55% more or $1550 the global impact is not relevant.

Libya has the honor of checking in with the highest annual GDP rate 55.1%, followed by Ethiopia at  8.5% and a list of Asian and African countries that follow.  The US, China and parts of the EU remain a turtle’s pace, but the Tortoise still beat the Hare.

A study done by the Heritage Foundation between 1977 and 1998 in analyzing the reliability of the IMF predictions, found that the margin of error for developing countries was tied to IMF funding.  The bias stemmed from whether a country received IMF funding with over-estimation errors being the rule.

A quick glance at Germany reveals that imports and exports are slightly down this year compared to the previous year, and external debt is at an all time high.   These measurements came ‘before’ any US trade issues.   But those numbers are relatively mirror images of all the biggest value countries – debt is at an all time high, and trade is flat.

The final analysis by the Heritage Foundation:

WEO forecasts shows the prevalence of systematic turning point errors relative to the actual value. 14 These errors take the form of consistent under- and overestimation, which are pervasive in WEO projections for output growth, inflation, and balance of payments on the current account in both industrial countries and developing regions.

Turning point errors imply that the IMF forecasts fail to capture and include crucial economic events and shocks. This failure would weaken the IMF’s effectiveness because early diagnosis of its member countries’ vulnerabilities to potential crises is critical to fulfilling the IMF’s mandate of ensuring the international financial system’s stability. Tables 1a and 1b report the results of this analysis.

So why do we listen?  Why does the market react?  Why should we care?

Because we are ingrained to believe that the IMF has reliability when in reality – they don’t.  Markets are driven by factors more relevant to money supply and interest rate projections.  The IMF really has no power, they remain a figure head that has long outlasted their initial value.  Initially created to help countries balance exchange rates and provide short-term capital to balance payments, instead, today they are a dictatorship whereby developing countries sell their souls for loans they can’t repay.

In response to the flagrant corruption within the IMF, China created the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank in 2014, and the BRICS created the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement.

Ocotber 1st, the IMF appointed a new top Economist, Gita  Gopinath born in India, schooled at Princeton, teacher at Harvard, and student of Ben Bernanke.  She is responsible for over-seeing forecasts – predictions.  Her particular proficiency would seem to be currency movements, interestingly, the same market advocated by Soros.   She has stated that the movement of currency is faulty because it is invoiced in US dollars.

The dollar is still quite strong, but a shift is the agenda.

Germany and Brazil – A Soros Win

What do Germany and Brazil have in common?   They are both scaling for implosion. While Brazil has been fighting for its very life for years, Germany is just beginning to get a taste of what is to come.

It is a chess match and Merkel and Rousseff are on the Defensive, a position of loss. The question isn’t who is on the board playing Offensive, but who is moving the pawns? The pawns are easily recognizable; in Germany every move is to favor the blackmail of Erdogan, while in Brazil, Rousseff’s VP, Temer, would seem to think he is immune from prosecution and has been promised the Presidency after Rousseff’s impeachment.

The Game?   Power.

Rousseff is vehemently disliked by Soros. Her government and by default, her country, became aligned with the BRICS, a unity that interferes with the global effort of the Order. In the last quarter of 2014, Soros divested his fund of every share he held of Brazil’s Petrobas – just weeks before the Petrobas scandal broke and the stock plunged 35%. The previous quarter Soros had drastically ‘increased’ his portfolio shares of Petrobas – creating a boom and bust – something he is notorious for.

Merkel is vehemently disliked by Soros. Her power and rule of Germany was based on trust and an obscenely high approval rating that had remained steady at 75-80%. Attacking that approval rating was necessary in order to displace her with a new government. Announcing that Europe, and by default, Merkel, must take responsibility for 1 million refugees per year, Soros initiated the migrant influx that has plagued Germany with rapes and costly medical crisis. Merkel’s approval rating plunged into the 30% range.

With elections coming up in 2017, Merkel will most likely be in a position to stand down leaving the Chancellorship post open to a Soros intervention. The goal, according to Soros own Project Syndicate, is to unify the EU under a single central governing body, aka, one that he and his proteges will direct.

With the guidance of Gerald Knaus, head of the Soros NGO, European Stability Initiative, and a graduate of Harvard, Merkel was advised to take in the refugees. And so she did, sealing her own fate and the fate of the EU in a naïve attempt at choosing what she believed to be the lesser of two evils. The ESI  is entrenched in the Soros agenda with financial support coming from;    The Foundation to Promote Open Society, the British Department for International Government, Stiftung Mercator which has supported a Turkey integration for over a decade, ERSTE Siftung – an organization that has been working to collectively integrate the Eastern countries into the EU for decades so as to form a one unified state, including most recently, Ukraine, The Charles Stewart Mott Foundation which works in conjunction with The Open Society Foundation, calling for A Great Awakening, The King Baudouin Foundation which was founded by a host of banks including The Rothschilds, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, and more.   The sheer magnitude of the shadows becomes incredibly formidable and their timing would seem to be ramped up exponentially.

So why Brazil?   To break the back of the BRICS. The Petrobas scandal was leaked during the 2014 election process in which the opponent candidate Neves, was the preferred winner by the US. Since then, we have seen the campaign to demonize Brazil over the Zika Virus, a virus that has claimed no microcephaly cases at all in Africa, it’s country of origin, since it’s discovery some 60 years ago, the potentially failed World Olympics scheduled for this summer in Brazil, and now the impeachment of Rousseff.

The economy devastated, the country in turmoil, the President facing impeachment, Brazil is imploding. Should a US backed, Open Society backed, new president be elected, the BRICS would be that much more weakened.

In the meantime the Soros campaign to create a media and investment estrangement from China is just the beginning of his tactics. With Bloomberg, CNBC, Marketwatch and Fortune all posting Soros latest Chicken Little – The Sky is Falling  predictions, as in “China is going to crash” scenario, he is laying the foundation for discord and discontent.

Soros is not one to be idle.  His goal is far reaching, and he is an ever aging octogenarian.  Having been successful in Brazil, Argentina and Germany, and only partially successful in Ukraine, and with his sights set on Bosnia, Serbia, China, South Africa and India, the Game has begun.

Julius Malema, a radical leader of South Africa’s left wing has recently levied an antagonistic pointed a finger at the current democratically elected, Zuma, claiming that he will seek to remove the government, “through the barrel of a gun”.  Chaos breeds coup.

In the meantime, John Brennan, head of the CIA, has just made an ‘unannounced’ visit to Bosnia after meeting in Riyadh to discuss the 28 pages of 9-11 documents that the US will most likely – not release to the public.

Soros wants to be alive to see the fruition of his dream – and that is going to require some greater speed and efficiency in taking over the ruling elite of the remaining BRICS.

China vs US – While Nero Watched Rome Burned

A new world order is being created, but it isn’t here. While the US, Canada and Europe squabble and promote division in every corner of the world, there is a quiet, under-reported affiliation that is taking root. China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa are forming an allegiance of cooperation and growth. While they may have tensions, they are attempting to rise above those age old embitterments and focus on something far more important – patriotic commitment.

What would happen if the US blew a giant hole in its relations with China?

As the second largest economy in the world, China is at the forefront in growing internal relations, trade, and a more diversified economic profile as oil has remained relatively flat. While the US continues it’s bizarre strategy of making unproven claims regarding a hack as being fomented by the Chinese government, and puffing their proverbial rooster chest at the South China Sea, the Chinese continue their strategy of the tortoise and the hare.

The BRICS do have power, and it is growing. Who are they opposing? NATO, UN, The World Bank and the IMF. These outdated, corrupted agencies are set to fall as a re-organization of power shifts.

NATO: China, Russia, Brazil, India and South Africa are not members of NATO.

UN: China and Russia have recently aligned in their stance within the UN. Their agenda? Sovereignty. The right of other countries to not have the will of the UN or other countries placed on them via regime change and/or orchestrated coup. Unfortunately, Samantha Power used that statement by Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, as a stage to tweet, “Too often govts use it (sovereignty)as a shield behind which they commit atrocities—WW2&Rwanda show peril of looking away.” In other words, Samantha Power arrogantly implied that Wang was lying and that the US is simply policing countries for their own good.

This does not make for a good allegiance with China and speaks volumes at the lacking integrity of Samantha Powers as a person in a position of power.  She has no clue what diplomacy means.

World Bank: The BRICS are slated to open their alternative to the World Bank this year – New Development Bank. The purpose is similar to the World Bank but with a redistribution of power to the founding members. The NDB comes on the heals of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) which was also established by the BRICS. Despite scoffing by the US, the AIIB has pulled in 57 members including; Most of Europe, The Middle East, South America, Most of Asia, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and The Philippines. Three notable nations have refused – US, Canada and Japan.

By holding to ideologies that belong in antiquity, the US has managed to propel itself into a spiraling decay of power. A short sighted view, by not becoming a member nation, the US can now never hold the same member power in the AIIB even if it later decided to join.

IMF: The US, UK, Germany and France combined hold about 32% of all the votes in the IMF. Despite China’s attempts to gain greater voting power, ultimately, they felt snubbed. And as we speak, China is pressuring the IMF to recognize the yuan as an international currency on par with the dollar and euro.

While the US fallback is to demonize, the world is changing and the American public is left uninformed, puppets in the hands of the masters. Russia is and has been a diversion. The Middle East is in the midst of a re-organization proxy for the takeover by Saudi Arabia. Creating more demons than allies the US will be left with a bankrupt NATO, IMF, UN and World Bank. Focus on a demon and watch as the US slides down an economic hole from which there is no recovery.

Reading comments by Soros, his opinion varies nearly month to month. From a stance of arrogance, to a stance of China being the model world government, to warning of a China meltdown, to recommending joining China, to investing in Chinese stocks, to instigating protests in Hong Kong, to a stance of predicting WWIII. Ultimately, the US was always the greatest obstacle to Soros’ agenda for a One World Order.

While Nero watched, Rome burned.

Obama’s Putin Game Plan

I always find it amazing when a person or a country acts so righteously incensed when a person or country they have regularly maligned and slandered isn’t nice back. It is one of those self consumed moments of narcissism that alludes their sense of ethics. Personally, I have both witnessed and been the brunt of such bizarre attacks. It is as though some sense and sensibility mechanism in the brain has shut down or simply doesn’t exist.

Enter Putin. He is continually characterized by the western media as a heinous monster. These mediaites typically cite as justification the atrocities committed by Lenin and Stalin. This same thought pattern should then be imposed on Merkel and Hitler? Of course not! But for some reason, the media can not seem to make this differentiation logic.

So why is Obama suddenly doing an about-face and claiming that the US needs to be buddy-buddy with Putin’s Russia?

Personally, I don’t trust the agenda. And I doubt Putin does either.

Russia got smacked by Europe, Australia, the US and Canada. We wiped out people’s income, their jobs, their economy, their livelihood. And now we are incensed that the Russians don’t so much like us any more. Instead of bowing at the knees, and begging for forgiveness, Putin acted like, well, a president. He immediately went into restoration mode, putting his finger in the dyke of sanctions. Since the sanctions began, he affirmed economic trades with China, India, and South America, shifting the agenda and putting the stability of the dollar in a precarious position. He loaded up on gold in anticipation of future ramifications. He ramped up the military and began the process of economic diversification. He did not – back down or crawl into a corner.

And now, Obama wants to reignite friendship.

The new and improved US/Ukraine government is posturing toward communism as it flagrantly murders its own citizens, considers martial law and has announced a moratorium on the repayment of debt. And these are the ‘folks’ we prefer to be in power and control? It is for this power government that we jeopardized world relations and set in motion a panic of world war.

So why would Obama shift?

What is behind the olive leaf? Perhaps it is the knowledge that the BRICS have the potential to bring about a currency change that UN nations aren’t ready for. The fall of the US dollar as the national monetary would forever change the face of this world. Countries never ‘come back’. Once imposed, the deed is done. Look no further than the Roman Empire, The Ottoman Empire, The UK, and we can see that the baton once passed, cannot be erased, edited, rewritten or returned.

The fear, that over-riding emotion that can make mice of men, is beginning to extend into the roots of power in the US. Too many enemies. And the BRICS, whether through propaganda or not, are rising above the colossal regime change and civil warring. The media is ‘sort-of’ catching on, but the reporting is still silent.

Reading articles from 3-5 years ago, the idea that the BRICS would extend their power and rise to the forefront was considered ludicrous. It is said that 80 countries have now joined the BRICS, and growing. The idea that the US was the penal system of the world has isolated these countries who seem more inclined to spend their time advocating working together rather than punishing.

China, the largest holder of US debt, has dumped about 10% since 2013. Their alliance with Russia and India against the US, is not without consequences. Does Obama want to remedy this, or was this his agenda in derailing the US? We can speculate, but given the incredible level of corruption, lies, and fraud that have defined this administration, it is generating – fear. He, is generating fear. He is instigating racism and violence. And we must take note of the source.

Did Obama and his shadows miscalculate their enemy? The Art of War clearly states that underestimating one’s enemy is the equivalent of death. Whether Russia was ever the enemy is certainly subjective. Creating an enemy where an alley once existed is a dangerous game. I seriously doubt ‘regime change’ can be had in either Russia or China. A bloated ego concept at best. So, if you can’t change the regime, can you befriend it and manipulate it from afar?

Like Nero who fiddled while Rome burned, Obama may have fiddled away our country, but there are many who still hold to morality, ethics and charity. The many just don’t need late night television to applaud them.