The EU Commission is backtracking their previous rejected deal with Theresa May and claiming that the no-deal BREXIT really means the rejected deal that gave them $46 billion is the best solution for all… according to Mina Andreeva, a spokesperson.
Certainly $46 billion is a whole lot better than the $9 billion they would likely get in the Johnson no-deal deal. Of course, resurrecting a ‘rejected’ deal would legally be starting from scratch. But in the mélange of chaos, the EU Commission would seem to be grasping and gasping – albeit too late.
All economic indicators now rally behind an impending recession for Germany. Given they are the stalwart economy behind the EU, where Germany goes, everyone else follows.
The primary cause of Germany’s implosion is trade not BREXIT. Industrial output has tanked, primarily in the auto and machine parts industries. Merkel’s outright refusal to negotiate a fair trade with the US having been advised that in so doing she could create a German recession – is simply corrupt.
But allies can sometimes reveal the wolf behind the mask. Germany is not a US ally, Germany milked the US economy for decades.
The US/China trade war tipped the balance, and Germany remained staunch and unmoving.
Timing is everything.
If the UK remainers win, the UK will derail with Germany and France. They will be boarding a sinking ship. Short-sighted, ramping up trade with the US would be an economic win. But sometimes, pride and principle are fervent manufacturers of destruction.
While the socialists in the EU argue against Trump’s tariffs, they seem to forget that Trump offered a zero tariff exchange which Germany and the EU snubbed. Is the EU working for the people? It would seem not. And like the rejected BREXIT deal that they want to suddenly reinstate, a zero tariff trade with the US may be the no-deal deal.
Is it the trade deal or is it the ally that wasn’t?
While rejecting the US zero trade deal, the EU simultaneously agreed to zero tariff’s with Japan. The wolf showed his face. And the ally that was, revealed it’s true corruption. The EU wanted an imbalance and it served them well for 30 years.
The US trade balance was at zero up until 1976. The following 15 years saw the trade balance dip and trough before coming back to zero. Between 1991 and 2010, the trade balance tanked! Why?
Clinton lowered US tariffs which ultimately destroyed US ability to compete in the export and trade markets, particularly with China. Because while the US lowered its tariffs, other countries did not follow suit which would have been the job of the WTO… The World Trade Organization, which was originally the General Agreement on Tariffs and Tax, was created to provide an equality, a balance of tariffs among all member countries. Apparently, that nondiscrimination balance didn’t apply to the US.
When Clinton lowered the tariff rate in the US trade disparities began to escalate rapidly to the detriment of the US. In fact, it was a binge selloff with the US trade balance going from zero to -900billion with the speed of a Lamborghini on a German autobahn!
Prior to this binge selloff, US small businesses were a growing, the economic boom of entrepreneurship expanded significantly. Mom and pop stores changed the face of the US. But with the advent of Clintonesque cheap imports, these small businesses began to shutter, unable to compete. The Walmarts of the world took over increasing the trade balance even more as Chinese goods became the mainstay. And middle class shrunk like Alice.
In 1980 small business start-ups represented 12% of all US companies and employed 4% of workers. Today those numbers are halved. Those companies were The American Dream. That Dream died when Clinton lowered tariffs despite advice from both parties that such a move would destroy US businesses. The World Trade Center obviously did nothing to balance the discrepancies in countries tariffs, and have proven to be a truly non-essential entity.
Back to BREXIT.
The creation of new trade partners invoking a zero tariff policy is the ultimate free-trade deal. It is the deal that is now in effect with Mexico and Canada. Today China has slipped to third place in US imports with Mexico rising to number 1 and Canada to number 2. Expanding their economies, Trump’s zero tariff trade is picking up the slack of China imports while contracting their economy. It is a non-tax trade.
Adding the UK, would provide them with a backstop and relieve the angst of impending doom and gloom that the naysayers of BREXIT fear. Trump and Johnson have already made arrangements to soften the initial BREXIT wind and create a sovereign economy without the welfare payouts to the EU.
It is change. Change requires stamina and patience. Fear will only forebode chaos.