Trump’s China Trade War – The Facts

The Federal Reserve and the World Bank at the behest of a handful of economists who are decidedly left leaning have published two scathing reports which claim that Trump’s trade war with China is costing US taxpayers upwards of $68 billion annually.

Of course the statements are biased. Of course they represent an agenda and potential fodder. If they are true.

Economists are an interesting breed. They sit in glass houses and create a conclusion without seeming to have a basic understanding of real world business and tend to adamantly disagree with each other on a broader scale while presenting a portion of the facts.

Somewhat like the climate change fiasco.

Trades are business contracts. They may be executed as a one-time transaction, transactions that occur over a series of months, and often are transactions that are locked years.   They take time to execute. Terms are pre-determined. Terms are re-negotiated.

These ‘Economists’ have made a determination based on data that is virtually impossible to track. In addition, their supposition ‘estimates’ an annual cost. But even that is wholly unreliable because the Tariffs were imposed over the course of several months in 2018, with intellectual property, aluminum and steel at the forefront.   They effectively began in July and phased in over a number of months.

China’s “implemented and ‘proposed’ tariffs” would affect $110 billion of imports. That does not mean the US exports stop. It means they will be levied a tariff which will effect the profit margin.

The economist’s reports both extrapolate the outcome as an annual loss. A year has not yet occurred.   In fact, there is only two months of trade numbers in 2019 to analyze. Certainly one can extrapolate based on previous data… right? Yes and no.

It is like a poll wherein a random sample of 1000 Democrats all residing in New York are sampled and the results will determine the US Presidential election…

Example:   During Obama’s reign trade data is available on a monthly basis.   At the end of 2008 when Obama came into office, the US trade deficit with China was roughly $268 billion.   By the end of 2016 when Obama left office, it was $347 billion. Before any tariffs had any measurable impact, by the end of 2017 the deficit had climbed to $375 billion.

This ‘non-important’ deficit has climbed every single year since it began in 1986. Since 2000, it has quadrupled. And not one sitting President did a damn thing.

Suddenly, with two measurable months of data available for 2019, the media is calling Trump’s trade war a calamity.

In actuality, the value of imports for January and February of 2019 were down 10% and 20% respectively compared to the previous year – before any tariffs were imposed.

Lets look at another trading partner – Germany.

When Obama came into power that deficit was roughly $28 billion. By the time Obama left office that deficit had spiked to nearly $65 billion. It torched at $68 billion by the end of 2018, well before Trump’s tariffs took effect. The first two months of 2019, the deficit had lowered nearly 10%.

Even in the world of an Economist, 2 months is clearly not enough of a data set to make any conclusion or opinion.   And yet they do. Why?

Obviously it is an attempt to discredit Trump and provide fodder for Democrats who are bent on finding fodder because they are frustrated with the incorrigible corruption, instead of truth.

What this also reveals is the larger picture in which both the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank are colluding in this massive demonization of all things Trump.     It also reveals that these institutions have provided absolutely no guidance or stipulations or concern for the annual increase in US trade deficit for the last 30 years.

Which technically is a reflection on their incompetence. Economic Policy is their mainstay. Their existence. So obviously they did not have the US in their sights for at least 30 years.

Why?
1) According to it’s own website, the World Bank’s field of study is on ‘Developing Countries’.   So why did they commission a report on Trump’s China trade – two well developed countries outside of the scope of their jurisdiction?

2) The second part of these reports claims that US agriculture farms have been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs.   But the agriculture business isn’t the mom and pop farm of a hundred years ago. Mainstream media have been sounding the alarm on the changing face of farms for a decade or two.

Statistics: Most small farms are ‘hobby farms’.   Tax incentives during the Bush and Obama years gave wealthy elites the ability to classify their compound acreage in the middle of such places as Long Island and the Hamptons as farmland, take a tax benefit, and produce enough to feed a cat.

Secondly, ‘large farms make up less than 4% of all farms and account for more than 66% of all sales. And that number continues to edge higher.   They are corporate farms.

And third, the Federal government continues to subsidize small farms up to $20 billion annually.

The value of agricultural exports to China is roughly $23 billion, which represents about 5% of all production in US.

It isn’t just the US Swamp that is fearful of Trump. It is The Swamps that exist globally.   He has turned their power off. He has broken the rules. He does not recognize their structure. And he wants to fix the chaos that they have so dedicatedly created for well over a hundred years.

Certainly there have been a few anomalies in the US; Kennedy, surely. But his fate and that of his brother reveal how determined the International Swamp is to maintain their brotherhood as is.

Lastly, the Federal Reserve Bank:   What is their job? Primarily – to address ‘banking panics’. Secondarily to manage money supply.   In 2012 when Obamanomics was considered an economic catastrophe the response of the Federal Reserve was not to commission economist papers, but to ‘do something’ to leverage that catastrophe. They have no business commissioning reports – outside of their Banking duties.

Trump recently threatened to take down the Federal Reserve; his animosity for that corrupt regime has been no secret.

The Enemy of my Enemy is My Friend.

Trump has been in office two+ years. He has fought for The People while being verbally attacked, legally attacked, his family in jeopardy, his life threated, and still he rose for us.  They are – running scared.

China Spygate: Arrest of Huawei CFO

Canadian officials arrested Huawei’s CFO, Meng Wanzhou, for allegedly violating sanctions against Iran. Canada claims they did so at the behest of the US and extradition will follow.  But no one in the US seems to have a clue who ordered the arrest, and given that arrests for sanctions violations have never been conducted by the US, the entire scheme seems more than a bit odd, if not a setup, if not falsely reported.

Typically, charges for violations are brought by the Justice Department and involve heavy fines – not arrests.  In this case, HSBC was the favored means of laundering according to reports.  HSBC has a history of laundering with the dubious honor of holding the largest sanctions fine as of 2012 at $1.3 billion as part of a prosecution agreement and $665 million in civil penalties.   At the time, the customers included Cuba, Iran, Libya, Sudan and Burma.  No individual was prosecuted.  In 2014, BNP beat the previous honor and agreed to fork over $8.9 billion in penalties after admitting to laundering transactions involving Iran, Sudan and Cuba.  NO prosecution of individuals ensued.

Bolton has claimed he was both aware in advance – and unaware of the arrest.  Trump was most emphatically unaware, which begs the questions who, why, and how?

The announcement was parlayed on the same day that Trump announced progress in trade talks with China’s Xi Jinping.  And thus alludes to the belief that the arrest was an attempt to defrock the positive and tank the stock market.   China has been relatively quiet, Xinhau News making no comment today, and yesterday relaying a press release that was the only press release available to all media outlets.

Canada has released partial information given a ban on media was requested and granted on Ms. Wanzhou’s request.   According to the Canadian government, they state that Wanzhou, who is ‘Chinese’ is suspected of working for the Chinese government and is a spy.  Which would make the Iran sanctions violation a distraction over the real reason for the arrest.

Ren Zhengfei, founder and President of Huawei Technology, is Wanzhou’s father.  Ren was a member of the Peoples Liberation Party where he worked in the military division as an IT Researcher.  He later joined the Communist Party of China.

Due to his military and Party affiliations, India felt Huawei presented a security concern and barred them from winning particular contracts.   Other countries have made similar security concern comments, but no one – did anything.   Huawei’s attempt to buyout US 3Com was forcibly collapsed due to spying concerns.   They have been on the radar and skated.

Hauwei manufactures telecommunications equipment, smartphones, and networking equipment.  Allegations have arisen that its equipment could contain ‘backdoors’ allowing unauthorized surveillance by the Chinese government and the PLA.  The company response was that their equipment posed no greater threat than any other company – which is legal speak for ‘everyone’s doing it’.  As such, miffed, August 2018, they stated that they would pull out of the US market.  Not quite so easily done.

Huawei is enmeshed in various partnerships with:  Motorola, T Mobile, Honeywell, GE, Deutsche Telekom, Groupe PSA, Symantec, Siemens and others.  Well ingrained in equipment throughout the world, it has overtaken Apple in sales of smartphones and is well on its way to being one of the top five cloud computing companies.

Obviously the Iran sanction violation is a media distraction.  The gag order is being contested.  But given the fact that China is actually being relatively silent regarding the entire situation would indicate that they know considerably more.

The arrest might also be a different backdoor – a bargaining chip…

For an arrest to have been made, evidence of the allegations would be necessary.  The Justice Department is currently head by Acting Attorney General, Matthew Whitaker, hardly a light weight.   He is an avid Trump supporter, and faithful to draining The Swamp.

The media has claimed that William Barr heads the list for Trump’s pick for Attorney General, however whether Barr wants the nomination is unclear and confirmation could easily take months, thereby giving Whitaker reign on the possibility of China spygate.

Tariffs anyone?

 

China Trade Deficit: A Work-In-Progress

The New York Times, CNN and Chris Wallace have all rallied behind a defeatist propaganda stream that the US-China deal is a failure…  The New York Times claims the China deal has been ‘rebuffed’.   Oddly, that would seem to be a quote from the New York Times and NOT China…  And Fox News host, Chris Wallace, who is a diehard Democrat, went head to toe with Mnuchin attempting to expound on his ignorance and ill-informed China diplomacy, only to find he was out-maneuvered.   Mnuchin was taut and to the exact point for each query, pointing out at the end that Wallace had somehow forgotten about – Iran.  Tch.

The annual trade deficit with China has been roughly $500 billion annually under Obama. During his entire administration he did absolutely nothing to change that negative strategy.   Obama’s cleverly devised China strategy was to build alliances with Japan, South Korea and The Philippines while putting more troops on Australia.  He and Kerry were sure that China wouldn’t notice this dramatic move, and if Jinping did surely he would completely acquiesce and give up.

Trump has indicated a ‘goal’ of a $200 billion reduction.   The EU is quite jittery given the economic consequences could simply mean China shifts trade with the EU to the US.  The EU already has its own significant trade deficit and this could derail them further.

What is becoming abundantly clear is the vast difference in having a politician run the country verses a businessman.   Politicians are being out-maneuvered at every curve in the horse race, their faces filled with the dust of the winning horses.  And ultimately, it would appear that the US, China and Russia will emerge the winners.  An odd shift in alliances.  But given the Swamp originates in the EU, an understandable game plan is clearly in the works.

China’s mainstream news source, Xinhau, is lauding the China-US negotiations as a means of meeting the needs of The People.  Yet the US MSM refuse to give credit where credit is due.  Why?  Because it isn’t about journalism, or truth, or business, it is about what the Liberal Mainstream have created – animosity and division.  They don’t even try to understand because understanding might make them actually realize they have Lost.

So while the Mainstream portray the staunch ‘agape’ political mindedness of Merkel trying to make amends with Putin and beg for Russia to fill the gaps of trade because of the big bad meany US who won’t pay for all their military any longer, Putin is negotiating his get of jail free card like a true businessman.  And Merkel has no choice.

Germany has succumbed to Communism – the war animal of government leading the wolves and attacking any wayward sheep that might want to graze freely:

Germany – a state wherein mom and dad will go to jail if they opt to homeschool. 

Germany – a state wherein the government is fining mom and dad if they take their children out of school a day or two early for vacation.  

Germany – a state wherein all media is subject to government censorship, including social media.

Germany – a state wherein mail belonging to private citizens may be opened by the government.

Germany – a state wherein laws are altered to accommodate the mass immigration of Muslims.

History has repeatedly found The People subjected to Communist rule – revolt.   Merkel grew up in a Communist household, and worked within the Communist Party of East Germany.  Her roots are embedded in an ideology that made her the perfect choice for the Cabal to succeed in strangling the life out of the people and ruling as the elite.

But their agenda is eroding – and taking with it much of old Europe while the eastern blocs emerge on the right as a new Europe in the making.  And as I said before – Macron is fidgeting, a Rothschild play going sour he wants to be on the winning team.

Boris Johnson – A War Monger Bought By Soros?

Boris Johnson wants WAR! Yemen, Iraq, Syria, he wants death! If we were to compare the rantings of a war criminal, of an ISIS commander to Johnson – on the surface, the fanatical face, the rage filled eyes, would look much the same! Is that really the only option our leaders know any longer?

With the US and Germany pointing the finger at Russia, the UK, France and US are busily negotiating more bombing campaigns to be initiated by the Saudis, all of course, within International Law guidelines. Which is code for, deny, deny, deny.

Boris Johnson is of the UK Conservative Party yet he embraces liberal economics and socialism… What does he embrace that is Conservative? He endorsed Obama and distanced himself from Bush… But even more frightening, when looking up the UK Conservative Party, it would appear that it is simply a title with little meaning whatsoever. He supports abortion, affairs, doesn’t believe in monogamy, is more of a secularist despite calling himself a Christian, and after a rude comment about Hillary in 2008, has backtracked to actually making glowing comments about her.

If Boris and Hillary are on the same page, that would indicate that the BREXIT deniers, Hillary, Rothschilds and Soros, were actually backing BREXIT while publicly decrying it. In addition, his stance on Russia has done an eerie ‘about-face’. Why?   Russia is a Soros agenda.  Boris’ ambition rules him. Just like Hillary. Just like Soros. He has no ethical standard and I imagine would take help from whomever could give him his delirium for power.  Enter Soros.

While BREXIT was hailed as being the end of the British pound, a chart shows the pound’s decline has been rather steep since mid 2014 having scaled back against the dollar by about 30%! During the same time frame the Euro has dropped about 20.5% against the dollar. Recently, Soros declared that the value of the dollar must decline 30%.  Of course the powers to create that decline are China and Japan who hold the most in US Treasury notes.  Irretrievably linked, bringing down one could spiral the other.  Hence it is in China’s best interest to diversify into Russia and alternate economies.

Boris Johnson’s appointment by Theresa May to Secretary of State For Foreign Affairs and Commonwealth is certainly not without ulterior design and motive. Nothing is done in our political world without purpose.  His desire to create greater trade with China is no accident.  But his call for greater war – is much steeper.

So if the Conservatives in the UK align themselves with the Democrats of the US who align themselves with the Progressive Marxist Socialists – that would make the UK Conservatives – Marxists… Right?

Years ago I was a Democrat. Then I was a Republican. Then I became an Independent. Why? Because the promises, the platform, the ideals are based on having an unlimited source of revenue. Here is an example of what the Democratic Platform represented in 1960:

  1. Russia and China were the perceived military enemies and the Democrats were chastizing the Republicans for not maintaining our world power position against them. They wanted to increase the military budget and spending in order to make the US look fearful!
  2. They wanted international disarmament of nuclear weapons which was then costing $100 billion annually – and a realignment of those moneys to economic development.
  3. They vowed that our foreign policy experts must be much more vetted as those who understand the language and culture of the foreign nation they represent, and all would work as a unified body.
  4. They recognized that World trade was a necessary evolution and that it would hurt many US industries. As such, they vowed balance, fair competition, and a reduction of foreign barriers.
  5. Loose money, freedom of labor from restrictions, 5% annual growth with -0- inflation.
  6. The proposal of tax cuts in order to curb unemployment
  7. The use of our food ‘abundance’ to control other nations, while easing credit for the farmers whose incomes have been beaten down.
  8. Everyone gets a house as an inalienable right. Medicare for the elderly. And appropriation of much more money for medical research.
  9. Pushing for oil from shale development, increasing all welfare programs, upping the minimum wage to $1.75, and more research into water and air pollution.

Sadly, reading about the state of our world, economy, and society in the 1960’s reads nearly verbatim what it is today. We face the same challenges, the same chaos, the same failures as though we have done nothing but spin in place, frantically peddling while sitting on a stationary bicycle.

National security, a balanced budget, fair wages, self sufficiency in exploiting our natural resources, healthcare for all, farm assistance, aid to the needy, and of course creating allies and enemies were the focal point then – just as they are now.

Perhaps it’s time to abolish parties altogether and simply have platforms – oh wait, that’s what Hitler did. Maybe people should just tell the truth – what a novel idea…