The Federal Reserve and the World Bank at the behest of a handful of economists who are decidedly left leaning have published two scathing reports which claim that Trump’s trade war with China is costing US taxpayers upwards of $68 billion annually.
Of course the statements are biased. Of course they represent an agenda and potential fodder. If they are true.
Economists are an interesting breed. They sit in glass houses and create a conclusion without seeming to have a basic understanding of real world business and tend to adamantly disagree with each other on a broader scale while presenting a portion of the facts.
Somewhat like the climate change fiasco.
Trades are business contracts. They may be executed as a one-time transaction, transactions that occur over a series of months, and often are transactions that are locked years. They take time to execute. Terms are pre-determined. Terms are re-negotiated.
These ‘Economists’ have made a determination based on data that is virtually impossible to track. In addition, their supposition ‘estimates’ an annual cost. But even that is wholly unreliable because the Tariffs were imposed over the course of several months in 2018, with intellectual property, aluminum and steel at the forefront. They effectively began in July and phased in over a number of months.
China’s “implemented and ‘proposed’ tariffs” would affect $110 billion of imports. That does not mean the US exports stop. It means they will be levied a tariff which will effect the profit margin.
The economist’s reports both extrapolate the outcome as an annual loss. A year has not yet occurred. In fact, there is only two months of trade numbers in 2019 to analyze. Certainly one can extrapolate based on previous data… right? Yes and no.
It is like a poll wherein a random sample of 1000 Democrats all residing in New York are sampled and the results will determine the US Presidential election…
Example: During Obama’s reign trade data is available on a monthly basis. At the end of 2008 when Obama came into office, the US trade deficit with China was roughly $268 billion. By the end of 2016 when Obama left office, it was $347 billion. Before any tariffs had any measurable impact, by the end of 2017 the deficit had climbed to $375 billion.
This ‘non-important’ deficit has climbed every single year since it began in 1986. Since 2000, it has quadrupled. And not one sitting President did a damn thing.
Suddenly, with two measurable months of data available for 2019, the media is calling Trump’s trade war a calamity.
In actuality, the value of imports for January and February of 2019 were down 10% and 20% respectively compared to the previous year – before any tariffs were imposed.
Lets look at another trading partner – Germany.
When Obama came into power that deficit was roughly $28 billion. By the time Obama left office that deficit had spiked to nearly $65 billion. It torched at $68 billion by the end of 2018, well before Trump’s tariffs took effect. The first two months of 2019, the deficit had lowered nearly 10%.
Even in the world of an Economist, 2 months is clearly not enough of a data set to make any conclusion or opinion. And yet they do. Why?
Obviously it is an attempt to discredit Trump and provide fodder for Democrats who are bent on finding fodder because they are frustrated with the incorrigible corruption, instead of truth.
What this also reveals is the larger picture in which both the US Federal Reserve and the World Bank are colluding in this massive demonization of all things Trump. It also reveals that these institutions have provided absolutely no guidance or stipulations or concern for the annual increase in US trade deficit for the last 30 years.
Which technically is a reflection on their incompetence. Economic Policy is their mainstay. Their existence. So obviously they did not have the US in their sights for at least 30 years.
1) According to it’s own website, the World Bank’s field of study is on ‘Developing Countries’. So why did they commission a report on Trump’s China trade – two well developed countries outside of the scope of their jurisdiction?
2) The second part of these reports claims that US agriculture farms have been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs. But the agriculture business isn’t the mom and pop farm of a hundred years ago. Mainstream media have been sounding the alarm on the changing face of farms for a decade or two.
Statistics: Most small farms are ‘hobby farms’. Tax incentives during the Bush and Obama years gave wealthy elites the ability to classify their compound acreage in the middle of such places as Long Island and the Hamptons as farmland, take a tax benefit, and produce enough to feed a cat.
Secondly, ‘large farms make up less than 4% of all farms and account for more than 66% of all sales. And that number continues to edge higher. They are corporate farms.
And third, the Federal government continues to subsidize small farms up to $20 billion annually.
The value of agricultural exports to China is roughly $23 billion, which represents about 5% of all production in US.
It isn’t just the US Swamp that is fearful of Trump. It is The Swamps that exist globally. He has turned their power off. He has broken the rules. He does not recognize their structure. And he wants to fix the chaos that they have so dedicatedly created for well over a hundred years.
Certainly there have been a few anomalies in the US; Kennedy, surely. But his fate and that of his brother reveal how determined the International Swamp is to maintain their brotherhood as is.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve Bank: What is their job? Primarily – to address ‘banking panics’. Secondarily to manage money supply. In 2012 when Obamanomics was considered an economic catastrophe the response of the Federal Reserve was not to commission economist papers, but to ‘do something’ to leverage that catastrophe. They have no business commissioning reports – outside of their Banking duties.
Trump recently threatened to take down the Federal Reserve; his animosity for that corrupt regime has been no secret.
The Enemy of my Enemy is My Friend.
Trump has been in office two+ years. He has fought for The People while being verbally attacked, legally attacked, his family in jeopardy, his life threated, and still he rose for us. They are – running scared.