unemployment

IMF: Debt Reduction Thru Higher Interest Rates

Posted on by Helena

IMF:     “Public debt now accounts for almost 40 percent of total global debt, the highest share since the mid-1960s. The accumulation of public debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the two major economic crises governments have faced—first the global financial crisis, and then the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Providing a graph to depict and substantiate this claim, the IMF literally made up the causal factors.

According to their graphic (an estimate per their footnotes), from 1970 to 2007, before the global financial crisis, before the pandemic, public debt doubled.    Nonfinancial Corporate Debt doubled from 1970 to 2020 – before the pandemic. The Public debt held by the US is on par with the debts illustrated as being from advanced economies.   According to the IMF the increased debt was justified as governments sought to par the catastrophic consequences of ‘their own lockdowns’.   Okay – the IMF didn’t exactly put it that way.   Instead they denoted the necessity to ‘save peoples lives, avoid bankruptcies and save jobs’… as justified actions.

But the point remains.   The Pandemic was used as the catalyst to increase debt beyond sustainability.

The IMF again relays inconsistent information by claiming that ‘central banks were instrumental in keeping inflation at bay during the pandemic by consistently lowering interest rates so governments could unabashedly borrow limitlessly.   But again, according to their own graphic interest rates had tanked in 2019 – well before the Great Pandemic.

Central Banks are now poised to reduce large purchases of government debt and other assets in advanced economies. The effect of this reduction is to reduce the supply of money in the economy increasing interest rates and the ability to borrow.

In contrast, some economists are calling for the outright ‘cancellation’ of the debt.   Shifting debt from the Fed to the Fed’s banks is a zero monetary transaction.   The argument the economists provide is that the debt is ‘fiat money’ existing only from an accounting standpoint. Like transferring money from your checking to your savings – you still have the same amount of money.

Cancelling the debt would have the result of cancelling the circular interest.   However, the logic is that cancelling the debt means the feds have no way to lower inflation which is attached to selling bonds to the public. Selling new bonds would likely require an increased interest attachment to make them attractive which would push inflation higher.

The entire monetary policy concept created by the Federal Reserve assures us of two things:   1. The continued degradation of the value of $1, and 2.   The ever increasing worthlessness of money due to insurmountable debt.

At which point paper money will be burned for heating fuel.

At this point Today the IMF is recommending a tightening monetary policy greenlighting the raising of interest by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates have already begun to climb in anticipation since the end of November.

And just like that, Morgan Stanley is calling for the Fed to raise interest rates to bring a ‘balanced economy’. Acknowledging that the move will result in a stagnated economy, CEO Gorman has declared that the move will be completed by the end of March and equities will flatten as cheap money disappears.

Spiked by the wage raises, Gorman has declared the Fed should start moving today given any waiting will make the move that much more difficult for sustainability.   Falling in-step with their banking handlers, the Fed announced 3 hikes will begin in 2022, with a further 3 in 2023. Citing a robust job market and a reduced unemployment rate, Gerome Powell has announced he will comply with the banker’s demands.

The available jobs has hit a near high at over 11 million while unemployment stands at 4.5%.   But unemployment does not reflect those vast millions who simply left the employment field.   Within those numbers are some fine print:   the number of working hours per week is 34.8, and nonfarm payrolls are less than half what they were previously.   The problem is unusual.   People reaching the age of 55 are retiring early, and the youth market is flat because millennials all believe they deserve more and better. Sounds like a mantra they learned somewhere….   Socialist schools maybe.

The Federal minimum wage remains at $7.25 per hour.   Yet retail and hospitality rates start at $15 – and can’t find an able body.   Of course there are the mask and vaccine mandates playing havoc as well with industries.   Many companies are making the mandates citing Biden’s Executive Order for companies which have more than 100 employees.   Problem.   Biden’s EO mandate was tabled by the Court. It doesn’t exist.  Which could up the ante for more class action lawsuits…

MARKET – Choppy.

US CoVid Response; Science and Economics

Posted on by Helena

While reviewing Colorado governor Polis’ mask mandate criteria, the website stated that the Science of Mask Wearing could be found on the CDC website.   Following the link, I was taken to an article written by CDC Director Redfield and two other doctors: John Brooks, an internist whose specialty is HIV, and Jay Butler, whose concentration had been opioid crisis in Alaska.  

I.   Mask Mandates:   According to the article, they evidence the need for hospital staff to wear masks during surgery.   They state that there actually has never been a scientific study regarding mask mandates for flu or any disease because the study would be too costly.   Instead they conducted two internet polls of 500 people each asking respondents if they wore masks. That is the sum total of SCIENCE.

The article concludes that communities need to conform to normalizing masks – without indicating that they would ever reverse the mandate.   And instead of giving an indication when masks would no longer be required, they urge innovation in the design of masks so they can be more readily tolerated over long periods of time.

In other words – the CDC is stating: A) there is NO SCIENCE, B)   masks are the New Normal – forever, C)   because I say so.

II.   Schools:   While schools are either 100% virtual or partially virtual, it has been reported that 10% of Americans have no Internet – 33 million people.   Roughly 5.5 million of those people are under the age of 18 – school children.   Which means that 5.5 million children are getting no education as a result of lockdown measures.

But even this does not reveal the true dimensions of the crime.   Households may have one computer that must be shared.   Requiring adults to work from home on their laptop – may mean their children go without.   In essence, the school mandate will create a bubble of lower income children being left behind with no education at all.

The Great Divide!

III.   Lockdowns:   Lockdown measures across the globe are inconsistent and to some extent ridiculously insane.   Rome has declared a curfew from midnight to 5am to combat the spread of CoVid.   Germany has declared that entry from all EU countries is accepted – entry from any other country is not accepted unless very extreme exception is granted. A 2 week quarantine is necessary unless a ‘proven negative test’ is provided to the government.   As of November, the quarantine will only be 10 days…

Spain has declared their borders are open to all EU countries and the following list of reciprocal countries:   Australia, Canada, China, Georgia, Japan, New Zealand, Rwanda, South Korea, Thailand, Tunisia, and Uruguay.

Apparently, Chinese are ok, but citizens of the US are not welcome.

Japan removed its restrictions in June for the entire country.   While the government’s response to the virus has been lauded as one of the world’s best – Japan is now in a recession. Foreign nationals from virtually any country in the world are prohibited from travel to Japan unless they quarantine for 14 days prior and have proof of a negative test. Medical travel insurance is required. And all events in Japan have been cancelled.

The population of Japan is 126.5 million.   They have had 1685 deaths attributed to CoVid, representing a death rate of .001%. Like Germany, Japan’s unemployment rate is a muddy representation.   When accounting for people who are furloughed, Japans unemployment is far greater than the 2.6% it announces, and is more likely 11.4%, which would better reflect the ongoing recession. The Logic:   14.4million people have no income, the country is in a contracted recession, to protect 1685 people who died – and 87,000 who recovered.

IV.  Unemployment:   The US unemployment rate is 7.9% which is anticipated to drop to 5% in 2021.   With the exception of Alabama, all US states report historical high rates of unemployment when lockdown measures were instituted.   And just in time for the election, WHO declared that lockdowns don’t work and urged all countries to get their economies flowing again. Tourism – was the primary reasoning.

According to recent ‘tallies’, the number of people in the US who died and either had a positive CoVid test or CoVid was presumed, and such individuals had 2 or more underlying diseases and/or conditions is roughly 220,000.   According to the CDC 6% of those people actually died because of CoVid – 13,000.   The US has the highest presumed death tally, but not all countries count the same – in fact, each country counts their death rate according to the way they prefer, many do not include nursing home deaths, or outside of hospital deaths.   And some have no way of making a determination at all – and simply provide a good faith estimate.

If 52% of all deaths are from nursing home residents, and those tallies are not incorporated into other countries rates, then making ANY comparison is impossible.

Essentially, comparisons of unemployment, case rates, and death rates are a castrated hodge-podge of discombobulation.

V.   Growth Rates.   According to trading economics, the growth rate/decline as of June 2020 by country showed the US has slammed down to -9.   But that doesn’t tell the whole story… Germany tanked to -11.3 and its previous growth was -2.2.   Germany was already in a recession before CoVid hit.   In fact, the same negatives reveal that many countries were in a recession before the virus took it’s economic lockdown toll:   Netherlands, Iceland, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Austria, Slovakia, Mongolia, Japan, Iran, Czech, Brazil, Ukraine, Thailand, New Zealand, Belgium, Peru, UK, Spain, Mexico, Belize…etc…etc…etc…

France previous growth rate was -5.7 and as of June 2020 hit -18.9, more than double the US.   The EU Growth rate was -2.7 and tanked to -14.4 as of June 2020.

What does this reveal?

The real MASK mandate was CoVid was used to hide the Bubble that had already hit the global economy.   And comparatively – President Trump’s actions and policies kept the US in much better condition than our allies.

Job Requirements – a Want Ad

Posted on by Helena

WANTED: “Recent” College graduate, prefer MA, 15 years previous experience required, able to lift heavy loads – upwards of 125 to 300 pounds, sit endlessly doing nothing, have a respectable, professional attitude, designer clothing required, work 80 hours per week and some weekends, and rise to the occasion when your boss screams obscenities at you that may require you to bow, bark and scrape like a pet dog. Likely candidates should have no life outside of work and have no possible evolution of a life.

Before submitting a resume, all candidates must complete a short online test including skill levels of Excel, PowerPoint, Word, Oracle, Perl, Java, Sage, SAP Business, NetSuite, PHP, NDS, JDE, Cruise Control and Timberline. Estimated time to complete the test is 20 hours. Anyone whose score is below 99.5% will not be considered, ie, don’t bother sending in your resume. Due to potential cheaters, candidates who are interviewed will have to retake a similar test in a 4×4 room we provide, locked and secured, camera monitored (bathroom breaks are not available).

Health insurance will be provided after one year of satisfactory performance without sick days, leave or vacation, however, given that our insurer has just announced they will be leaving the Obamacare exchange, the only plan available has a $25,000 deductible and a 60% co-insurance clause with a maximum out of pocket of $150,000 per person and $300,000 per Family. The $3200 monthly cost will be shared employee/employer 75/25. If financial assistance is required – that is your responsibility, as all employees are required to accept the policy we offer or they will be terminated.

We provide a 401(k) plan available to Executives only. Given this position is for Management, you would not qualify until or unless you were promoted within to an executive position. However, given this has never happened in the history of this company, it is doubtful you will ever qualify. But you can always hope.

Our Dental and Vision plan has a $15,000 deductible after which everything is covered except teeth and eyes.

Preference will be given to a young person willing to work as an “Intern”, however serious candidates who meet all the criteria and are under the age of 28 will also be considered at a starting salary of $25,000 annually. We anticipate over 10,000 applications for this position, so no one will call you if your resume is rejected. Bonus’s are common within this company, but they routinely apply to top tier Executives – so you won’t be eligible.

We are an Equal Opportunity employer looking for that exceptional candidate that can fit into Cinderella’s Shoe. Please do NOT call or your resume will be rejected. Resumes over ½ a page will be trashed. Resumes that do not meet the writing guidelines of The Association of Resume Writers – will be trashed. Resumes that utilize colored font will be trashed. No Recruiters, no Bondsmen, no Political agendas. Period.

We anticipate choosing our candidate within the next month however, in the event that we do not find any of the submitted resume’s fit the Shoe, we reserve the right to list this job opportunity again monthly up to one year.  Candidates are prohibited from sending their resume to any other company, agency or individual during this candidacy period or their resume will be – trashed.

Interviews will be held weekly between the hours of 6am and 6:30am. Each candidate scheduled for an interview will be allowed to sell themselves before a committee of ten senior executives for exactly six minutes. Unlike presidential debates, if you go over your time, you will be hauled from the interview room forcibly and not considered viable.

Any protest of these rules and guidelines will be considered a terrorist act and Homeland Security will be called whereby you will be arrested on the spot and spend eternity in the most tortuous prison on this earth.

If accepted into this five star company, you will be required to sign a contract that prohibits you from ever leaving our employ unless fired for just cause (reasons can be found in our company handbook on pages 6 through 127). If you do attempt to leave this company on your own terms, you will be liable for a rebate of all wages earned between the first 1 and 7 years, 75% of wages earned between the next 7 and 15 years, and 50% of wages earned between 15 and 25 years. At the end of this 25 year grace period, you will be deemed to be fully funded and free to find work elsewhere as you will be considered too old to be of further service to this company.

Please paste your Resume in the box below:

Obama – Unemployment Down – Spending Up

Posted on by Helena

Obama says he has single handedly put the economy back on track and brought unemployment down to under 5%!! WOW!

Of course, that self lauding can be means tested easily enough through a simple look at Federal Spending on the government website:

2008 vs 2015

  1. Healthcare is the largest budget item on the board with the Federal share topping out at $1.0186 trillion. In 2008 before Obama took office, that number was $671.4 billion. An increase of 51.7%.
  2. Pensions, the second largest Federal budget item were $668.7 billion in 2008 and have grown to $959.1 billion in 2015 – an increase of 44.3%.
  3. The third largest expense is Defense spending. In 2008 $729.6 billion compared to 2015 $799.7 billion – an increase of just 9.6%. Within that figure the largest increase in spending was in ‘foreign aide’ which increased by 68%. Actual Defense spending was down and spending for Veterans was up.
  4. The fourth largest budget item is Welfare. And this is what makes Obama’s statement about everyone back to work a bit odd. Welfare spending is up. If in fact everyone was back to work, if in fact unemployment was slashed, wouldn’t Welfare handouts also decrease? They didn’t. For some odd reason Welfare benefits (not including healthcare) went up 17% during the same time that unemployment was ‘slashed’.
  5. If we compare Welfare to the 2007 Budget which Obama references as the height of the crisis, it is even more disturbing. Welfare is up 44%. Unemployment in 2007 was roughly the same as what Obama claims it is now – just under 5%, yet Welfare spending went from $254 billion to $366.5.
  6. One other Budgeted expense that should be noted. Payments for police services – went down between 2008 and 2015.
  7. In 2009 when Obama first took office, the unemployment rate was the same that he states it is now – just under 5%.

While 2016 is obviously still a budgeted item with no real numbers available, Healthcare Expenses are expected to continue to rise by about $100 billion, Pensions will rise by about $40 billion, spending on Education will drop, Foreign Aid will increase by 18%, and Welfare, a projection of employment vs unemployment, that’s expected to increase by another $30 billion or roughly 8%.

If we factor in the Welfare Benefits paid for Healthcare on a Federal, State and Local level with standard Welfare, the 2016 Budget Estimate is $1.0564 trillion. In 2008 the payments were $731.3, a rise of 44.45% despite the fact that unemployment is supposedly equal.

What that says?

It explains why Obama tooting his own horn at how better off everyone is now that he’s fixed everything, doesn’t add up mathematically. It shows that the actual cost of Healthcare continues to rise despite the notion that Obamacare will make it ‘more affordable’. It shows that there is either some monkeying around with the unemployment numbers, or being on Welfare is much more profitable that working. It shows that spending on Foreign Aid is another type of Welfare – just that it is for other countries. And that the budget might be well below actual Truth given it makes no reference to Syria, Yemen, Ukraine or Iraq where we are well aware that $$$$$$$$ will fly.

And it explains why we just no longer trust ANY politicians, they fudge the Truth to the point of absolute Betrayal.

“Never trust anything that can think for itself if you can’t see where it keeps its brain.” JK Rowling.

DEBT vs GROWTH – which is better?

Posted on by Helena

While America’s debt now stands at 105% of GDP, Europe is quickly catching up. The UK debt hovers over 96%, France is closing in on 95%, Greece is at 196%, Italy is 140%, and Germany is at 68.7%. But some of the largest and smallest numbers are not always talked about. For example; Japan tops out at 199.4% and Russia lingers at just 11.3%. Part of the problem is in the numbers – as in, who is reporting the numbers? The Japanese government is reporting debt at 199.4%, while Bloomberg and The Economist say it is 240%, but not to worry because public debt is really only 140%. Well that puts them over Italy and no one is saying that Italy has nothing to worry about. But then Italy’s ‘public’ debt is 114%, so while Japan is ‘really only’ – well, Italy is ‘really only’ – less.

The Scandinavian countries routinely come in low, although not the lowest with 20-50% ratios. Even Pakistan and South Africa come in under 40%. Low debt does not equate to a good standard of living, but it does equate to a theory of management. High debt certainly creates the aura of near implosion. So why does the mainstream news keep plugging the failing economy of a country that has the lowest debt to GDP ratio in the world and virtually ignore the country with the highest debt?

Because information molds views and more than anything the view that the media wants to extol is that – Russia is imploding. But it’s not.

Japan has a low inflation rate and low unemployment. But on a comparison basis, consumer prices for food and rent are 25-39% higher in Japan. In 2014, Japans growth rate went into negative territory. While the rate is back in the positive, it is a barely there number at .6%. Italy’s growth rate is currently at .3% whereas the US is lingering at .2%. The countries with the highest growth rates include Senegal at 22% and Kazakhstan at 8%. While the Ukraine’s growth rate had ranked in the positive at 3.3 before the coup, it now lingers in the toilet at -17.6%. In the wisdom of Dr. Phil – ‘How’s that coup workin’ for ya?’

So where do these statistics leave us? Correlations seem to be lacking.

Simply looking at one number obviously fails to tell anything of worth. So what can we learn from Italy and Japan?

While high debt is an indicator, in combination with stagnant to negative growth, a country is doomed. What stimulates growth? What lowers debt?

Growth is stimulated by competitiveness and private sector returns, public sector investments in education, infrastructure and technology are all drivers. So, how do you do that? Well, for one thing taxing out the public and private sectors is an obvious faux pas. What can hamper these natural stimulations? According to a Nobel Laureate Economist, quality government is the key. Governments that abuse their power, make decisions for the elite, and favor the special interest groups, will create the implosion no matter where the debt stands.

Within the government initiative there is the obvious – demand. Demand is high when wages are more indicative of a thriving economy. Low wages = low consumer spending = low consumer confidence = low overall growth rate.

How do we increase wages?

The Obama solution is – redistribution of income through taxation. It’s an economic absurdity to even consider this a solution. Taxing a corporation reduces their bottom line more which will effectively redistribute nothing to anyone but the government. Corporations are motivated by profit. They want a greater return if they are going to pay more wages. They want increased productivity to justify the wage increase. Right or wrong – that’s how their mind works. Resume writers want their clients to show how they created greater wealth for their previous employer because that’s what sells an employee’s worth.

Stagnant wages make for low morale and stagnant growth. Corporations don’t have the American morale any longer, they see cheap India labor as their driver. If the government spent more time and money ‘incentivizing’ corporations to pay better wages and keep them in the US, entitlement programs could begin to fall away thereby redirecting the entitlements to incentives. It might be a breakeven for the government, but that would be their ‘job’, and moral, confidence and earning power would be the end result for the citizens the government represents.