US JOBS REPORT: Altered, Manipulated, Fake

The JOBS number Biden is touting as showing how stupendous his economic policies have been?   Fake.   A Survey. An altered Benchmark.  A faulted, defunct means of measuring employment and unemployment that requires continual modification each month as real numbers are released.  

Presented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the numbers vary dramatically when compared to the actual payroll audit done monthly by ADP.   ADP’s audit of actual payroll takes a month to compile before it is released which makes more sense.   As a test I looked what ADP reported for December compared to the BLS:   ADP – a loss of 301,000 jobs.   BLS – a gain of 510,000. A discrepancy of 811,000.   Therefore, the 467,000 being surmised by BLS for January is significantly suspicious and could be completely wiped to another revision of -350,000 when ADP releases their report in March.

The Lie accomplished two things:   1)   it purportedly made Biden look good,   2)   Gave the bludgeoned tech stock market a Lift!

According to ADP’s Report for December released February 3rd, the biggest losses were from among small businesses. Even Christmas couldn’t hold them together.The other discrepancy is bankruptcies.   In 2020, President Trump introduced the Bankruptcy protection Act for any business owing less than $2.7 million.   Biden increased that limit 280% to $7.5 million thereby reducing the number of bankruptcies and employment losses.

A NUMBERS GAME>  Making Statistical Comparisons Worthless<

BLS claims Biden “added 6.4 million jobs in 2021, empowering workers to secure higher wages”!   The BLS closes their report with a demand that all workers get vaccinated while promoting frequent testing, masks, etc…

Of course the misnomer in the terminology WordPlay “added” is strikingly false.   Jobs aren’t ‘added’ when people go back to work – in addition, employers have shuttered for lack of workers.  It is is similar to the means used to redact and add voters on the Machines used in the 2020 election.  The numbers are Worthless.

Apparently there is nothing sacred from their Lies and Propaganda – we are truly living in communist China.   While our government is living in Sweden where there was no lockdown.

BLS measures payroll by conducting a “Household Survey” .   Anything below 150,000 is cause for concern, negative numbers send ALARMS ~ according to BLS.  The Census Bureau provides the names of households to survey – numbering 60,000 – with the intent they are a composite demographic of the entire population.   Of the households, 75% of the sample remains the same from month to month and 50% remains the same year to year.   The computerized survey is then weighted for ‘independent population estimates’ and those realigned numbers are fed into an algorithm and spit out for public consumption!

Voila!

These numbers determine employed vs unemployed so as to define new/added jobs.   The US labor force is roughly 170 million – the Survey would represent .00058 of the actual labor market. Given the vast discrepancy for December numbers via ADP vs BLS, I would suggest their methodology is corrupted.

TO add to the fallacy, BLS has announced they changed the benchmark for how they measure the job market and have begun to modify the entire 2021 year to accommodate that manipulation/alteration.   Increasing November by about 400,000 a 200% increase.

When asked about the altered Benchmark, the Labor Secretary deflected by hailing the BLS as the ‘gold standard’… of blah.   But Economists have stated that this manipulation will give the Federal Reserve the impetus to ‘double’ the first rate hike from .25 basis points to .5 basis points which will bring equity shares crashing to a halt.

It would appear that the Benchmark was recalculated based on changing the total labor force from 170 million to 146 million ‘based on deaths’.   That would equate to 24 million people in the labor force who died or were permanently disabled.   In addition, they revised the algorithm to include an estimate of those employees exempt from Unemployment Insurance claiming this data has ‘lagged for two years’.

As a result of this Altered Benchmark, the largest Revision (a negative 489,000) affects the Trump year 2019 which is likely going to be used as a setup for data arguments in the 2024 Election.

Our politicized government is truly a theatre.   Where everyone pretends to be someone else, everything is something else, and the props continually collapse.

IMF: Debt Reduction Thru Higher Interest Rates

IMF:     “Public debt now accounts for almost 40 percent of total global debt, the highest share since the mid-1960s. The accumulation of public debt since 2007 is largely attributable to the two major economic crises governments have faced—first the global financial crisis, and then the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Providing a graph to depict and substantiate this claim, the IMF literally made up the causal factors.

According to their graphic (an estimate per their footnotes), from 1970 to 2007, before the global financial crisis, before the pandemic, public debt doubled.    Nonfinancial Corporate Debt doubled from 1970 to 2020 – before the pandemic. The Public debt held by the US is on par with the debts illustrated as being from advanced economies.   According to the IMF the increased debt was justified as governments sought to par the catastrophic consequences of ‘their own lockdowns’.   Okay – the IMF didn’t exactly put it that way.   Instead they denoted the necessity to ‘save peoples lives, avoid bankruptcies and save jobs’… as justified actions.

But the point remains.   The Pandemic was used as the catalyst to increase debt beyond sustainability.

The IMF again relays inconsistent information by claiming that ‘central banks were instrumental in keeping inflation at bay during the pandemic by consistently lowering interest rates so governments could unabashedly borrow limitlessly.   But again, according to their own graphic interest rates had tanked in 2019 – well before the Great Pandemic.

Central Banks are now poised to reduce large purchases of government debt and other assets in advanced economies. The effect of this reduction is to reduce the supply of money in the economy increasing interest rates and the ability to borrow.

In contrast, some economists are calling for the outright ‘cancellation’ of the debt.   Shifting debt from the Fed to the Fed’s banks is a zero monetary transaction.   The argument the economists provide is that the debt is ‘fiat money’ existing only from an accounting standpoint. Like transferring money from your checking to your savings – you still have the same amount of money.

Cancelling the debt would have the result of cancelling the circular interest.   However, the logic is that cancelling the debt means the feds have no way to lower inflation which is attached to selling bonds to the public. Selling new bonds would likely require an increased interest attachment to make them attractive which would push inflation higher.

The entire monetary policy concept created by the Federal Reserve assures us of two things:   1. The continued degradation of the value of $1, and 2.   The ever increasing worthlessness of money due to insurmountable debt.

At which point paper money will be burned for heating fuel.

At this point Today the IMF is recommending a tightening monetary policy greenlighting the raising of interest by the Federal Reserve. Mortgage rates have already begun to climb in anticipation since the end of November.

And just like that, Morgan Stanley is calling for the Fed to raise interest rates to bring a ‘balanced economy’. Acknowledging that the move will result in a stagnated economy, CEO Gorman has declared that the move will be completed by the end of March and equities will flatten as cheap money disappears.

Spiked by the wage raises, Gorman has declared the Fed should start moving today given any waiting will make the move that much more difficult for sustainability.   Falling in-step with their banking handlers, the Fed announced 3 hikes will begin in 2022, with a further 3 in 2023. Citing a robust job market and a reduced unemployment rate, Gerome Powell has announced he will comply with the banker’s demands.

The available jobs has hit a near high at over 11 million while unemployment stands at 4.5%.   But unemployment does not reflect those vast millions who simply left the employment field.   Within those numbers are some fine print:   the number of working hours per week is 34.8, and nonfarm payrolls are less than half what they were previously.   The problem is unusual.   People reaching the age of 55 are retiring early, and the youth market is flat because millennials all believe they deserve more and better. Sounds like a mantra they learned somewhere….   Socialist schools maybe.

The Federal minimum wage remains at $7.25 per hour.   Yet retail and hospitality rates start at $15 – and can’t find an able body.   Of course there are the mask and vaccine mandates playing havoc as well with industries.   Many companies are making the mandates citing Biden’s Executive Order for companies which have more than 100 employees.   Problem.   Biden’s EO mandate was tabled by the Court. It doesn’t exist.  Which could up the ante for more class action lawsuits…

MARKET – Choppy.