Iran: It Isn’t Oil Stupid, It’s Pharmaceuticals

The Iran rhetoric has been thick.   Everyone is soliciting their highest ranking intelligence to make an accusation, citing a plethora of Scientists, Geophysicists, and Engineers to support their view.  And, of course, the diametrically opposed stories tell a different tale.

The same media, and many of the same liberals who advocated for the Iran Nuclear Deal that was imposed by Obama via Executive Order, are now calling for retribution attacks against Iran for the recent drone strike.   So what happened to the wonderful peaceful Iran that Obama and the Liberals wined and dined?

Because many of these same pundits are now calling for the annihilation of Iran…  The Democrats demand – war.

Sort of…

Tankers were hit by either land mines, missiles, or other ‘flying’ contrivances.   The tankers belong to Japan and Norway.  According to Norway there will be no retaliation and the news is already dead on arrival.  They postulate that a sophisticated ‘agent provocateur’ is responsible, but ultimately blame the attack on President Trump because he shred the Iran Nuke Deal.  Japan has stated that there will be NO retaliation, and no news sites in Japan seemingly think the instance is even worthy of an article.

Neither the press in Japan or in Norway even acknowledge the US Drone downing.  The pictures presented by Iran are actually of a drone downing in Yemen in 2017.   And yet, the US war mongers are now convinced Trump is a wimp for not decimating Iran… instigating war, and creating a new pocket of ummmm – wealth.

The Iran Nuke deal was after all designed to create a new source of wealth for the elite. Businesses were lined up, drooling at visions of sugarplums – and valuable pharmaceutical opportunities.

Obama officials, Dianne Feinstein and John Kerry have been desperately attempting to assure Iran that the Nuclear Deal is still viable and that the plans as established before Trump can be reinstated.   But Rouhani isn’t convinced.   Attacking Saudi ships, Japanese ships and Norwegian ships this year, Iran would for all intents seem ‘confused’.

What would be gained by goading and provoking Trump into a war?

By 2002, Iran had accumulated a massive internal pharmaceutical industry that increased in value by roughly 500% between 2009 and 2015.   High tech medicines including monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and recombinant proteins have been the biggest leaders in the field with Germany and Russia being the primary importers.

Novo Nordisk, the 10thlargest biotech in the world based out of Denmark had contracted to manufacture insulin in Iran.   Sanofi, based in France, is the 5thlargest for prescription sales and it too was chomping at the bit with Iranian deals in the works.   Novartis, based in Switzerland, was on board as well.  Among its many subsidiaries was Syngenta, which specialized in genetically modified plants and is now owned by ChemChina.  Novartis also specializes in monoclonal antibodies, which it produces and sells ‘outside of the US’.  And in 2009, Obama awarded Novartis a $486 million contract to construct a plant in North Carolina where they would be tasked with creating 150 million vaccines in the event the administration declared a ‘pandemic’.  In 2009 when Obama took office Novartis was selling for roughly $30 per share, today it is $91.  Novo Nordisk was trading at $12.70 and is now $50.90.

Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen was being paid a monthly fee by Novartis with the agreement that Cohen would tell Trump how best to regulate the pharma industry.  Cohen is currently serving a 3 year sentence in Federal prison.

Iran was to become the ‘hub’ of the pharmaceuticals and – the investors would be granted full exemption from taxes.   In other words, Iran was to become the new tax haven for wealthy pharmaceuticals and anyone else wanting to climb aboard the bandwagon.

When Trump nixed the Iran Nuke deal, these heavy weight pharmaceuticals saw their investments crash.    John Kerry had been heavily trading pharma stocks since 2011 when he worked in the Senate Finance Committee’s Health Subcommittee, a position he used and profited from greatly.    Obviously he has a vested interest in reigniting the Iran deal as he was likely a heavy weighted investor in the Pharmaceuticals when Obama used Executive Order status to confirm the Iran Nuclear Deal.

When Kerry inherited his father’s money in 2002 it was estimated to be worth roughly $300,000 to $1.5 million.  A large spread!  By 2013, he had somehow grown that to $250 million.  Today, the estimate is $103 million…a tragic loss?  Or simply transfer of wealth to a haven?

In 2009 Dianne Feinstein’s net worth was estimated to be around $77 million.  By 2014 it had reached $99 million, today according to Forbes, she is worth $80 million.   A tragic loss…

In May 2019, one year after Trump reneged the Iran Nuke Deal, Rouhani stated that the commitments agreed to in the deal would no longer be adhered to and proliferation would edge up. Three days after the tanker attacks, Iran restated that their enrichment program would “far exceed” the restrictions by June 27.

Dianne Feinstein visited Iran in May, two weeks later the Japanese and Norwegian tankers were hit, and a US drone was downed.   Kerry had been in constant telephone conference with Iran during this same period.

Did Feinstein and Kerry order the hits?  Why?

With an oil glut that has decimated oil prices, the tanker attacks spiked oil from reaching its potential of $30 barrel to about $50 – still quite low but a good enough spike to enrich a few profitable wagers.  But oil is passé, Iran has abundant farmland only 12% of which is actually utilized. Their minerals include: chromium which is used to control weight, muscle, diabetes, heart issues, etc… Their desire is to navigate away from an oil economy and create a pharma economy.   That desire was scrubbed by Trump.

The US is now oil independent.  We don’t give a dang about the Strait of Hormuz, or   Iran’s oil.   Follow The Money.   The Money is pharma.   Germany – heavily invested.  France – boldly invested.  Russia – flagrantly invested.   US?  The Swampers, the Obamites, the Hillarites, they are all likely heavily peeved as they watch their net worth scrubbed.  Pharma?  They would likely assassinate anyone who impaired their agenda. Who they support?  Whomever is likely to give them an ‘edge’.  They have no real political affiliation – their affiliation is to – money.

OIL – Black Gold looking more like Silver

In the midst of troops deploying to Syria, an escalating war that appears to be headed to engulf the entire Middle East, terrorism, ISIS, and Global Warming…. what has been happening to OIL?

Black gold?

Well, it’s looking more like silver than gold at $40 a barrel and steadily declining.

Normally, when there is war and strife and unrest in the Middle East, oil prices rise in response to a possible shortage. Yet, this time, oil continues to decline. Why is now different?

The are multiple reasons but a few headlines are most noteworthy: OPEC and the Saudi Production.  The Saudis depend on oil for their revenue and the lower oil falls, the more they need to sell to make up for the difference in price.   So, what to do?  They step up production. Sound obvious?

In actuality, the Saudis are hurting, their economy is in a freefall, they operate a 20% budget deficit, their reserves are steadily depleting, and their stock index is generating severe losses. But what are they doing to mitigate?  Not a lot.  They continue to pump more oil, to saturate the market, because it’s all they have. Asking them to stop would be asking them to commit suicide. The petrol industry accounts for 90-95% of ALL their revenue. So if they are already operating at a 20% deficit, how can they possibly absorb ‘more’?

The only way they can pull themselves out of this black spiral is to continue production, raise production and make massive changes in their reliance on oil as their main revenue source, ie Diversify.

But they have another problem – upwards of 90% of their private sector workers are foreign born, only 30-40% of working age Saudis are employed, the government subsidizes the rest. A significant drain on wealth.  But their own citizens don’t have the expertise to manage and run the oil markets, they haven’t the education.   Foreigners spend money, adding to the economy.  But the unemployed suck it back dry.

Not exactly a business model for sustained wealth.

What is their secondary market? Petrochemicals. Petrochemicals are used in the manufacture of plastics and synthetics as well as fertilizers. Monsanto owns it’s own petrochemical plant, Sterling Chemical. And with the land grabs in Africa – fertilizers, GMO’s and petrochemicals will flourish. South Africa is now the 8th largest producer of GMO’s in the world, including maize, soy and cotton.

But with hardline pressure by Monsanto and Syngenta, GMO production has increased dramatically adding Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Mali, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Ghana – all on the African Land Grab list.

Saudi Arabia is the third largest investor/holder of land grab in Africa, second is UAE and first is US.  A win-win is the profitability of future agriculture using petrochemical fertilizers…

And while the Paris Climate Summit proposes lowering C02 emissions and toxic gasses, petrochemical pollution and GMO fertilizer pollution rage on.

Petrochemicals are THE MAIN SOURCE of Industrial air pollution. The Industrial Sector is considered the largest source of China’s smog. But the largest producers include: Basf of Germany, DOW of USA, Exxon of USA, Lyondellbasell of Netherlands, INEOS of the UK, Saudi Basic of Saudi Arabia, Formosa of Taiwan, Sumitomo of Japan, and DuPont of USA.  But these represent only the top tiers in an industry that was burgeoning with over 3000 plants worldwide but has also felt the profit bump of falling oil prices.  But while plastic and synthetic production has fallen, fertilizers expand.

And while OPEC countries continue to produce oil, further saturating the markets, other countries have pulled back, their profit margins having long ago been divested. As in the tale of the Tortoise and the Hare, running as fast as you can to the finish line doesn’t necessarily mean you win. But the Saudis have little debt, and can continue to ride the wave plodding like the tortoise, waiting for the fallout from production in other countries to peak before they plug the lid and rapidly push the pricing to potentially extraordinary levels. In the meantime, those countries that closed up shop won’t have the time to retool and will get hit hard.

But the game is not for the faint of heart. The breakeven price of production for Saudi Arabia and Russia is the same at $105, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE is $80, Iran is $130, Libya, Bahrain and Yemen is above $140, while some shale producers in the US report a breakeven as low as $24 in North Dakota.

It is not a game of chess.  Or even Tactics.  Time is the game.  Who can hold out the longest.

And, Time will tell…