Cost of BREXIT

No-Deal BREXIT: The COST

Posted on by Helena

Brussels claims the UK will need to cough up $47.7 billion in a hard BREXIT. PM Johnson claims the number is closer to $8 billion. Who is right?

When Theresa May was PM, she supposedly offered $40 billion to the EU Commission and that was rejected.   Obviously, the art of the deal was to never have a deal. And May was a part of that treason. While the EU continues to use this number as an agreed dollar figure, given there was ‘no agreement’, that number disappears from any future negotiations.  As in – poof.

In other words, the EU Commission may have royally screwed themselves in not making any partial or piecemeal form of agreement within the Theresa May treason. That could have obligated the UK to some form of payment.   But a ‘no deal’ means exactly that, nothing was resolved.   A legal misstep.

And in that, Boris Johnson is correct, the only potential obligation would be the UK’s annual membership fee through 2020.

Most recently, the EU has insinuated that a nonpayment scheme would result in instituting a trade war to punish the UK.   Roughly 35% of UK exports find their way to EU countries. But more significantly, 45% of UK imports come from the EU bloc.   With the economy of Germany tanking, a trade war with the UK would all but collapse the EU. Still, the EU is adamant, “UK will have to pay no deal BREXIT”.

But the UK isn’t arguing that, the argument is how and how much?

The problem? The legal position is unclear, allowing for vast differences of ‘opinion’ as to how and how much.

While May invoked Article 50 in 2016 giving a two year window for negotiations, there is no mandate in that Article for financial reparations.   Article 210(3) discusses the exact template of divorce, but also provides no insight into a financial obligations.   However, some legal opinion states that the UK is subject to trade agreements made by the EU in 2014, which are valid for seven years, placing the UK liable for their unused share – November 1, 2019 thru December 31, 2020, which would amount to 16%.

It is then up to the EU Commission to provide substantive analysis of each and every trade agreement created in 2014 for which the UK would be held responsible, and the amount that remains unpaid in such negotiations.   But that is rather simplistic when one considers the co-mingling of assets – as in a marital divorce.   Those assets far exceed any dollar figure the EU can legally assert against the UK, and will require extensive research and market analysis.

In 2017, the UK’s net contribution to the EU was roughly $9 billion.  If the EU wants to have access to the single market system like Switzerland, it is estimated to cost $3.71 billion per year.   It is based on a flat rate of .2% of GDP.   But someone hasn’t done their math!   In 2017, Switzerland’s GDP was roughly $679 billion. If their contribution rate is .2% – their contribution would only be $1.35billion.

In 2017, the UK GDP was $2.62 trillion. If we impose the same deal as Switzerland, the incorporated trade deal would cost the UK, $5.2 billion per year or about half its current contribution with all the luxuries that are afforded other non-EU members including Switzerland.

In that light, the UK would have no obligation to commit to the Socialist rules and agendas imposed by the EU, would not be propping up faltering economies, and would enjoy the freedom of single market trade.

But during the massive treason exploited by Theresa May, the GDP growth rate for the UK tanked falling recently to negative territory triggered by manufacturing.     France and Germany have also experienced a sharp decline in the GDP since the beginning of 2018.   (Interestingly, Russia’s GDP growth rate has far surpassed that of the EU member states – but the media is silent…).

Forecasts for France and Germany, the EU powerhouses, are glum with high unemployment, low growth, a rising trade imbalance, and high personal and corporate tax rates. They have lost their ‘mojo’.

The EU Commission no longer holds the aces in a poker hand, and PM Johnson and President Trump are all too aware of that truth.

A no-deal BREXIT may have a sluggish start, but given assistance from the US in trade, it would be absolutely disastrous for EU partners to lose the UK as a trade account.   Germany’s economy would tank, France’s would follow, while other lesser trade countries might take advantage of a lucrative deal; Hong Kong, Italy, China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey and UAE, to name a few.

If Germany and France go – so shall the entire EU, as in – poof…

Theresa May: Terminal BREXIT

Posted on by Helena

Theresa May has spent her entire term in office as Prime Minister of the UK trying and failing to implement BREXIT.  Nothing else at all marks her tenure of the last 2 ½ years.  And still, the supposed deal she executed that was approved by the EU but not her constituents or the people, will likely fail. 

The ‘Deal’ still demands the UK be on the hook with the EU to ante up $39 billion for the privilege of exiting.  Trade and borders will remain unaffected.  Migration will likely increase as May has announced that she will vote to uphold the UN migration pact.  And in the end, the only change will be the ante!

Of course that doesn’t include the annual cost to the UK of the ‘negotiations’ which has been estimated to be about 26 billion pounds.  Financial experts have stated that if Parliament fails to approve the current deal the pound will tank upwards of 25%.  Sounds a bit like the last tanking initiated under the guidance of George Soros when the Bank of England – tanked, September 16, 1992.

Did Soros short the pound again?

Since 2014, the UK GDP growth rate has continued to drop.  The pedophilia scandal that was purported to involve over 1400 perpetrators and hundreds of thousands of victims – has stalled.  UK crime rates have been on an uptick spike since 2014. The jobs market and earnings growth have dropped.

And Theresa May has spent every single moment of her time in office wearily defeated by the gamers who drew her into the web of BREXIT manipulation.  One might feel sorry for her if she were simply a victim, but she chose her allies and bartered the UK.

The European Union, the UN, do the bidding of Soros and the Rothschilds.  If a country chooses to defy either, Soros will seek vengeance, create sanctions, and undermine law and the economy.  As national conservatives in the EU take root, ramping up antagonist moves becomes more and more a priority for the Soros/Rothschild Cabal.   Fake information has become the tagline target as everything anti EU, everything anti-Soros, everything anti-Socialism is targeted as fake information.

Even Facebook has become a target as Soros demands the resignation of Zuckerberg from this mega-conglomerate that has reached an astonishing value estimated to be over $500 billion and utilized by roughly 2.3 billion people monthly.  Of course Soros wants control of this power.  From his perspective, Zuckerberg is a peon, worthless in his game of thrones.

The question remains, if in fact Soros anticipates BREXIT will fail and the pound will tank, that would also mean he has no more use for the UK as an economy.

In the game of chess, the moves are never random, they are thought out with a future checkmate preconceived.  All the pieces are aligned, the opponents moves calculated instinctively.  Theresa May had no chess game, she simply moved her pawns randomly in one failed directive, BREXIT, while the queen, bishops, and horsemen yawned.

If BREXIT fails again as predicted, what would be the outcome for The People?

Despite calls for the UK citizens to vote on the BRXIT deal, May has refused citing time.  Time.  Is that not an age old ploy utilized by politicians in their eye rolling game? Delay until anxiety is so high the people will accept anything…

While the people of Germany have succumbed to Socialism, the people of the UK have succumbed to the Lords of chaos.  Ultimately, both will suddenly awaken and fight for their lives and salvation only to realize that too is all part of the chess game.

BREXIT was a deflection. It gave hope wherein the hope would not be attained, at least not within the same frame that it was created.

The only way to rise above the chessmen is to understand the game, see the reality of who is good and who is evil, and join forces with the likes of William Wallace.  Freedom!   He may have been a Scotsman, but he represents all men who fight for their country!

FRAXIT – BREXIT: Macron Changes Sides

Posted on by Helena

The EU is all a frenzy with visions of plum cakes and $$$$ signs at the prospect of BREXIT.   Bullying the UK and PM Theresa May seems to be their strategy as they demand a blackmail fee of $62 billion which includes pensions, health care costs, benefits, vacations and much more in their tally. A rather arrogant demand that would seem to delegitimize the bounds of integrity.

Unless you are Soros – and nervous.

The terms being demanded are not just about money but include a long laundry list that effectively calls for the UK to remain under the thumb of governance of the EU Commission, including adherence to the Single Market system, and that the UK must continue to abide by the international agreements of the EU.   Both of which rather defeat the entire purpose of being a sovereign nation.

As a part and parcel of the blackmail, unless the UK pays up in full, any and all trade will cease.   The top tier trading partners for the UK include; US, Germany, France, Netherlands, Ireland, Switzerland, China, Belgium, Italy and Spain.   The US, Switzerland and China would be exempt leaving a hole of about 40% of their total trade subject to cancellation.

However, from a NET trade stand point, Germany, Norway, Belgium, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands are all negative partners amounting to about -$120billion on total exports of about $408billion or roughly 30%.

So, if the UK were to call the bluff, could they create a new market source? And what would be the trade impact on the EU countries attempting the blackmail?

The UK’s top import countries include; Germany, China, US, The Netherlands and France. That would mean Germany, The Netherlands and France stand to lose the most as they rank in the top tier of both highest partners of imports and exports with the UK.

Together, France and the UK account for over 30% of the EU budget, leaving Germany, Italy and Spain holding the proverbial bucket. Italy’s top export partners include; Germany, France, US and UK.   Spain’s top export partners are France, Germany, Portugal, UK and Italy.

The circle becomes ever tighter as we consistently see that Germany is definitely central and would have the most to lose.

Interestingly, this also makes the France election even more pivotal because a Le Pen win could tip the balance and leave Germany holding a suitcase of shredded newspaper in the blackmail heist while facing FRAXIT.   Which could explain why Soros and the Rothschild cabal are shaking in their boots, and ramping up a Macron win so as to put the plum cake pressure on Theresa May.

Utilizing his Socialist charm, Macron recently called all politicians that don’t vote for him “morally weak”.   As in maybe he can guilt or shame them into supporting him? Strange philosophy. But perhaps not so strange when you are worried you are going to lose.

While ‘media polls’ claim Macron is a sure win, they also claimed Hillary was a sure win, Trump was unpopular, and Russia is the scapegoat for any and all things not pro-Soros.   That being said, the election is truly up for grabs.

It is no surprise that Merkel is backing Macron given Germany’s shirt is in the game should Le Pen win and the entire Brussels blackmail would quickly sputter, falter and end in a death spiral.

It could also mean that both Italy and Spain would most likely reconsider their positions as they can’t economically afford to pick up the slack of both the UK and potential France exodus in terms of both $$$$ and migrants.   It would also mean that the poorer more dependent EU countries would be all that was left outside of Germany and the EU Commission would be more like Robin Hood stealing from the rich Germans to give to the poor everyone else.

Ultimately this would destroy Merkel and put Germany on the chopping block. Unfortunately, of the six parties running in the 2017 election cycle, only one is not Socialist/Liberal, AfD, and they have yet to create a following.