The Climate Debate seems to consist largely of Chicken Little arguments made by non-scientists, and sometimes by – children, aka Greta. Case in point. An article in The Guardian, written by an unnamed source, makes some rather heated statements as fact that are completely fictitious and unscientific.
But then it is the journalistic trend to create fabricated information:
The Guardian Chicken Little opening statement: “The level of CO2 has been rising since the industrial revolution and is now at its highest for about 4 million years.”
If Co2 levels have been steadily rising for 4 million years, it sort of eradicates the belief that the rise is man-made. But even more interesting is the relationship of Co2 to temperature because we have been in a cooling trend for about 10,000 years while the CO2 levels have been steadily rising. That’s not how it is supposed to work.
We also know that over the last 4 million years the earth has experienced various ice ages – meaning the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not a parallel science. Historical levels of CO2 are calculated by measuring Ice cores. While ice cores hold information, the information is predicated on a particular latitude and is not representative of the entire earth. In fact, scientists have found that climate change in the northern hemisphere is quite different from the southern hemisphere. So averages are a misnomer.
El Nino and La Nina have only been charted for the last 60 years. The climate has only been charted since the mid 1800’s. Hurricane activity has been charted since 1851 – That’s a mere 168 years in the span of millions!
All other historical data has been theorized. Which is why scientists cannot agree – they each have their ‘theory’. We cannot possibly ‘know with certainty’ what happened 4 million years ago any more than we can 10,000 years ago. But it makes for good Chicken Little journalism to – pretend.
For example, here is another ‘theory’: “…recent research has shown that the solar wind, driven by solar eruptions (flares and coronal mass ejections) and plasma flux emanating from coronal holes, has a stronger impact on climate phenomena either directly or by modulating galactic cosmic rays.”
According to another scientist, Javier, the earth’s obliquity and solar insulation angles are the main drivers of climate which is why changes have been manifested for millions of years without human interaction. In fact, according to Javier, the earth has been experiencing a cooling trend since 8000 BCE, and these trends typically manifest over a 41,000 year cycle.
If anything, that would mean that if human mismanagement is causing warming, then we are actually postponing the next ice age!
Guardian statement #2: “As a result of global warming and rising sea levels, 1 in 5 people in the world will eventually see their cities submerged.”
Over the last 200 years, sea levels have risen about 16 centimeters (roughly 6 inches). But historical time frames can be misleading. If you view decades, centuries, or even a thousand years, the reference does not equate. For example, many scientists argue that the change in climate over the past 100 years is ‘more rapid’ than historical data and therefore is man-made. They support this argument with a graph indicating various changes over the last century. The statement; “global climate change is happening faster now than in any other point of modern civilization”.
- When did modern civilization begin?
Apparently, there isn’t a clear definition or time capsule that can be attributed to modern civilization. Some reference 3200 BC, others reference the 19th century. But its definition is important because it is used to create a scientific statement that is relevant to climate change. Yet it is fraught with vagueness.
Recent, modern history is packed with droughts, mini-ice ages, and societies that fled their conditions; the Mayans, Easter Islanders, Sumerians, Vikings, etc.. What did they do? They fled. They went to higher ground. They moved. Today, we stubbornly remain in areas that are no longer suitable and whine. It all comes down to trying to fit a square peg in a circular hole.
According to recent ice core data corroborated as of 2012; “During all episodes of major global ice loss, sea level rise has reached rates of at least 1.2 metres per century (equivalent to 12 mm per year). This is 4 times the current rate of sea level rise.”
Since 1870 polar warming has caused a steady rise in sea levels as ice melts and the warmer seas expand.
The rise and fall of sea levels has been scientifically deemed to be a direct response to the earth’s orbit. The warming trend is believed to have come to an end 10,000 years ago or 8000BC. While graphics provide slightly different +/- in terms of 1000-2000 years, even if we look at a graphic provided by NASA and NOAA the last ice age ended 16,000 years ago and the increase in global temperature rose from 42 to 58 within 2000 years before leveling somewhat and rising to 61 3000 years ago and sits now at 60. Well before the Industrial Revolution!
In the end maybe Greta would be better served getting an education, gaining real knowledge, researching supportive data, and serving where pollution is greatest – China.