Why is inflation measured to exclude food, housing and energy – the three most important commodities? What is left? The government answer is that these items can be volatile thereby obscuring core inflation. In 1914 the working-class cost of living index was the first official measure of inflation. The circular is: “Changes in inflation are widely attributed to fluctuations in real demand for goods and services (also known as demand shocks, including changes in fiscal or monetary policy)”. Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?
In 1914, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 10. Today it is 314.4. Its measurement is confined to urban pricing only as well as a government selection of a handful of retail and businesses. Oddly, the government version always seems to be far less than the People version. While the government version of employment seems far greater than reality. What we call funny numbers.
But the value, if it were honest, is to measure the economy after the fact. Something akin to weather manipulation. Forward thinking. Anticipation. Not a bad thing except that this thinking process is confined to a select group of people who may or may not have our best interests at heart. Essentially human bias is no different than AI machine bias. The only advantage to machine bias is that it is faster.
Fortunately and unfortunately, everyone has bias. This nomenclature of NGO’s claiming they are nonbiased with their committee of 10 liberals is an inevitable skewer. To counter this NGO propaganda, once upon a time the government tried to create a balance of ideologies – which basically resulted in a hung jury. As a result, we swing wildly like Tarzan in the jungle going from one treetop to the other – one extreme to the other and never really accomplishing anything.
Russia has become a good example of how a society can benefit with one ideology based on competence, a love of country, people, and trade. Since 1999, Russia’s GDP has grown from roughly $250 billion to nearly $2.2 trillion. Statista claims the future trajectory is a solid upward linear growth trend. US GDP growth also follows an upward linear progression. The major difference is debt. Russia’s debt to GDP is 14.9%, by comparison the US debt is 123%.
In people terms that debt would calculate as follows; Individual earns = $87,000 per year. Individual spends = $107,000 every year and debt accumulations keep growing with a 19% credit card rate. At what point does individual declare bankruptcy. A RESET.
The entire Monetary Policy of the Western nations is wholly flawed and faulted. The debt creates the inflation – not employment. Which has resulted in the CPI rising from 10 to 315 since 1914. Making your dollar 305% less valuable so you have to ‘spend’ more while owning less to make ends meet which is how the CPI is measured… against inflation and why the numbers are absolutely meaningless.
Economists are much like Big Pharma – they have been around for a hundred years and haven’t cured anything. It is a worthless occupation. They simply sit around writing scathing newsletters of Chicken Little proportions of doom.
Milton Friedman: Nobel Prize of Economic Sciences based on his research on consumption analysis and monetary theory. He was an admirer of FDR and the New Deal until he watched America slump into a Depression. As a result he proclaimed the FDR Federal Reserve acted in the opposite manner that it should have. Hindsight is always 100% correct! He also determined that the reason physicians made so much more money than other professionals was due to ‘barriers’ – ie, the educational cost prohibited the ability for there to be more physicians. Stellar…. and for this idiocy he is awarded the Nobel.
Friedman was a critical component in the creation of the Withholding Element of the American Tax System during his tenure at the Treasury Department in order to support the endless war programs. Ultimately, the very vacuous industry, The Federal Reserve, that he admonished in 1932 for causing the Depression, became his theory advocating for a Federal Reserve that utilized monetary expressions to regulate the economy via The Federal Reserve.
To support their theories, Economists have no actual knowledge of the US economy prior to 1857, so they extrapolate, code for make-it-up. Like Climate Change. The panic of 1857 is said to be the cause of the Civil War according to economists. After which deflation continued up thru today with a few years here and there of a break. Each time Economists did nothing to prevent the illnesses. Each time they used hindsight to make their analysis. Each time the Federal Reserve response lengthened the disease recovery. And today, is no exception.
Instead of calling out these esteemed Economists who prevent nothing, we give them prizes and awards and put them on a pedestal of grand kingship.
1961 to 1969: Long period of growth until the Federal Reserve initiated monetary tightening in 1970 – ending the honeymoon.
1980: The recession began as the Federal Reserve, under Paul Volcker, raised interest rates dramatically.
1981-1982: Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession.
When the Economists at the Federal Reserve enter the picture the US folds into a recession. All their theories and analyses are valueless. They don’t produce anything. Economics is a platform of philosophy wherein great thinkers come together to argue and opine while making use of exactly 2 methods of altering the economy: tightening monetary supply and loosening monetary supply. That’s it folks – after all their profound arguments and analysis that’s all they’ve got.
