data analysis

Bureau of Labor Statistics – Outdated & Archaic Algorithms

Posted on by Helena

President Trump has fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner because she was the messenger of bad news.  But there is a parallel agency, ADP, which also provides private employment data monthly.  Last summer, ADP completely upgraded its IT and data system algorithms.  The data from ADP has never matched that of the BLS, but given it is not government, it is considered more reliable. 

In that vein:  July was up 104,000, June was a loss of 33,000 and May was a gain of 29,000 (after revisions),  For July, leisure and Hospitality had the greatest gain and Education and Health had the greatest LOSS.  Completely contrary to the BLS.   Leisure and Hospitality would indicate tourism and part-time jobs.  Education would be funding cuts.  Still the variation in numbers is not a slight discrepancy, the last two months of 2024 saw BLS reporting higher numbers in the range of 33% to nearly 50%.  ADP data began tanking in April… with BLS numbers suddenly spiking 200% to 500% higher!

In other words, reality vs the government is not even remotely close.  And the jobs report is beyond dismal it reveals what job seekers already know – there are no jobs and the downtrend began in 2021.

Like GDP, our means of measuring data is archaic, algorithms are biased, and Department IT capabilities are ridiculously dated.  Something Musk and his DOGE team were attempting to upgrade before Trump decided cost cutting was not a priority.   If the numbers at BLS are consistently wrong, the data feed is the casualty.  And all collective reports at the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) within BLS are wrong.  The issue is multifold;  1. Unqualified due to education,  2.  Pandemic after-effects,  3. Tourism.  4.  Ex commuting immigrants.

Unqualified:  The fact that American public education is so abysmal  and only gets worse is a factor in finding hirable qualified candidates in such fields as IT and Healthcare.  Universities added worthless degrees simply to bolster profits such as humanities, liberal arts, sociology, communication, etc..  As a result, the universities are not meeting the needs of the economy.

Pandemic After-Effects:  Because our government is not willing to correctly report on either CoVid Deaths and Disabilities or Vax Deaths and Disabilities, it remains an unknown as to how many people have left vacancies in employment.

Tourism:  US sentiment from abroad is down significantly creating a pariah mentality toward the US which has resulted in tourism Hell.  Estimates consider the losses could be as high as $29 billion for 2025.  Las Vegas is dying on the vine with hotels empty and an unemployment rate near 6%.  Canadian tourism to the US is down 33%.

Immigrants:   While no one is complaining about ridding America of gangland immigrants, some were valid employees who are no more.   Obviously, this will impact employment reports.

Computer Sciences is experiencing the highest demand in fields such as cybersecurity, software development and data science.  It also is one of the lowest degrees pursued – hence the VISA program wherein those jobs were filled by foreign students.  From a purely business objective, if you hire an American over a Foreigner based simply on ethnicity and not talent – your business productivity suffers.

We continue to lose credibility on the world stage when our scientists are spending all their time writing Lancet papers instead of finding cures, inventions, and solving technology advancements.  In this regard, China, Japan, and even Russia – are the winners.  What measures an economy is its production and evolution, instead we measure it based on the stock market run by 3 Hedge Funds, Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street which like Bankers produce absolutely NOTHING and create wealth where none exists.  MAGIC.

AMERICA’s Education Collapse – Since 1967

Posted on by Helena

Since 1967, student test scores have been falling rapidly.  High school graduation rates are a manufactured mess with teachers pushing through students who can’t even read, much less go on to calculus and data analysis.  1967 was the year Johnson celebrated the Great Achievement:  37 million children were enrolled in elementary school, high school was 13.7 million and college was up to 6.5 million.  What Happened?

1967 was also the same year that college degrees hit a peak high before falling  led by math majors which began a downward trajectory.  Math intensive subjects include: math, statistics, engineering, and1967

physical sciences.  The Education system in place determined that to fix this differential, lowering the curriculum could artificially be imposed as a new base point. 

It is also when feminism demanded women have equality even if they were mentally unequal.  Lowering the bar.  A bar that has been continually lowered every single year since. ‘When I was in school’;  at 5 years in first grade we learned add, subtract, multiply and divide.  Reading was The Hardy Boys and Nancy Drew.  Lengthy stories were written.  French was taught.  Multiplication is now a 3rd grade subject.  Science engagement is 5th grade.

Why did education change?  A variety of reasons include:  1) a focus on lowering academic standards to inflate graduation rates.  2)  pressure by parents to grade easier.  3)  fear over student ‘self-esteem’.  4)  a shift prioritizing ‘social learning’ instead of rigorous academics.  5) political influence.

Social Learning was brought into the school systems via ‘psychologists’ who presented ‘behavior learning’ through just hanging out with others and learning by extension of the social contact.  In other words, Learning was a behavior instead of an intellectual pursuit. 

Home EC and Shop were eliminated from school curriculums labeled as being anti-feminism.  And the concept of vaccine mandates for children became prevalent in what would evolve into Big Pharma.

Race riots dominated American cities.  Vietnam took our students and sent them to war.  Hippies brought drugs, free sex, and anti-school sentiment.  Colleges began offering degrees in basket weaving to encourage enrollment, aka money.  And the Jewish diaspora took over the entertainment industry. 

American education began its long spiral into a world of burger flippers and basket weavers.  Now we are faced with importing talent to fill the holes and rifts.  The number of ‘bachelor’ degrees today in IT and Engineering is roughly 230,000.  Of those, roughly 100,000 pursue a Masters.  15.3 million students were enrolled in college in 2023.  1.2% of students chose STEM. 

DATA PROBLEM:   there were 3 million students that graduated high school in 2023 – 60% enrolled in college = 1.8 million.  One million college students are foreign born.  Given a 5 year term to graduate with a bachelors degree, assuming -0- drop out rate, and 16% being older than high school (2.4 million) that would mathematically establish a total enrollment of just 10.24 million.  Funny Numbers.  MISSING on the Milk Carton – 5 million students.

This DATA reveals the fractured incompetency of our Data.

The argument of America First is thus revealed as a YUGE uphill battle and utilizing Musk and Ramaswamy to rehabilitate a failed institution is not about enriching themselves, abut about helping us – and we should be grateful!   WE caused this – not them.

Today we have 32 million children enrolled in elementary school including all immigrant children, 5 million LESS than 1967.  Where did they go?   No babies.  No births.   No workers.   No college STEM degrees.  When arguing what happened to the whites, look at how many babies are born.   Research the FACTS.   Arguing against the importing of 65,000 Indians with degrees loses its edge immediately. 

You want to reorganize the VISA program – FINE – but put it into perspective of who is going to fill the GAPS, the HOLES, so that businesses can become competitive on the world stage.  Because right now – we aren’t.