President Trump has fired the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner because she was the messenger of bad news. But there is a parallel agency, ADP, which also provides private employment data monthly. Last summer, ADP completely upgraded its IT and data system algorithms. The data from ADP has never matched that of the BLS, but given it is not government, it is considered more reliable.
In that vein: July was up 104,000, June was a loss of 33,000 and May was a gain of 29,000 (after revisions), For July, leisure and Hospitality had the greatest gain and Education and Health had the greatest LOSS. Completely contrary to the BLS. Leisure and Hospitality would indicate tourism and part-time jobs. Education would be funding cuts. Still the variation in numbers is not a slight discrepancy, the last two months of 2024 saw BLS reporting higher numbers in the range of 33% to nearly 50%. ADP data began tanking in April… with BLS numbers suddenly spiking 200% to 500% higher!
In other words, reality vs the government is not even remotely close. And the jobs report is beyond dismal it reveals what job seekers already know – there are no jobs and the downtrend began in 2021.
Like GDP, our means of measuring data is archaic, algorithms are biased, and Department IT capabilities are ridiculously dated. Something Musk and his DOGE team were attempting to upgrade before Trump decided cost cutting was not a priority. If the numbers at BLS are consistently wrong, the data feed is the casualty. And all collective reports at the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) within BLS are wrong. The issue is multifold; 1. Unqualified due to education, 2. Pandemic after-effects, 3. Tourism. 4. Ex commuting immigrants.
Unqualified: The fact that American public education is so abysmal and only gets worse is a factor in finding hirable qualified candidates in such fields as IT and Healthcare. Universities added worthless degrees simply to bolster profits such as humanities, liberal arts, sociology, communication, etc.. As a result, the universities are not meeting the needs of the economy.
Pandemic After-Effects: Because our government is not willing to correctly report on either CoVid Deaths and Disabilities or Vax Deaths and Disabilities, it remains an unknown as to how many people have left vacancies in employment.
Tourism: US sentiment from abroad is down significantly creating a pariah mentality toward the US which has resulted in tourism Hell. Estimates consider the losses could be as high as $29 billion for 2025. Las Vegas is dying on the vine with hotels empty and an unemployment rate near 6%. Canadian tourism to the US is down 33%.
Immigrants: While no one is complaining about ridding America of gangland immigrants, some were valid employees who are no more. Obviously, this will impact employment reports.
Computer Sciences is experiencing the highest demand in fields such as cybersecurity, software development and data science. It also is one of the lowest degrees pursued – hence the VISA program wherein those jobs were filled by foreign students. From a purely business objective, if you hire an American over a Foreigner based simply on ethnicity and not talent – your business productivity suffers.
We continue to lose credibility on the world stage when our scientists are spending all their time writing Lancet papers instead of finding cures, inventions, and solving technology advancements. In this regard, China, Japan, and even Russia – are the winners. What measures an economy is its production and evolution, instead we measure it based on the stock market run by 3 Hedge Funds, Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street which like Bankers produce absolutely NOTHING and create wealth where none exists. MAGIC.