With all the talk of whether the UK should make a ‘Brexit’ or not – perhaps the reality is that the UK is not following the criteria and doesn’t want more probing into its finances that might reveal some inconsistencies…
There are five financial rules for maintaining EU membership: 1) HICP Inflation model which states that inflation can not be higher than the value of the three countries with the lowest levels averaged (Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus have been given a green light despite their levels not complying), 2) Government deficit relative to GDP must not exceed 3%, 3) Government debt to GDP must not exceed 60%, 4) Exchange rate stability of their currency for the previous two years, and 5) Long term interest rates can not be more than 2% higher than the government bond yields of the three countries with the lowest HICP values.
Can the UK even meet this criteria? Nah.
Government debt to GDP is 90.6%.
Government deficit relative to GDP was 5.7% for 2014-2015.
Inflation rate is 2.2% vs the max allowable as of 2014 of 1.7%.
But they aren’t the only ones who don’t meet the criteria. Exceptions are rampant in order to create a false bubble of membership. Denmark and Sweden have opted out. Switzerland and Norway were never in. Greece is in trouble. Italy is in trouble. A number of countries simply can not meet all the financial criteria and yet they are continually given – a pass. Which makes the criteria – ridiculous at best.
Enter Turkey. Turkey is blackmailing for admission and the EU is bowing and scraping. Is that a membership club you would want to belong to?
Who is Turkey’s biggest supporter in accession to the EU? The UK! The same UK that wants to leave, as in Brexit, supports Turkey joining. A bit odd. Interestingly, one of the biggest parts of the EU membership accession would allow for visa-free travel. As in refugees, ISIS, etc… How do you stem the flow of refugees from Turkey while opening visa-free travel? They are not mutually indistinct.
Turkey only has 3% of it’s physical land that is considered a part of southeastern Europe, and this 3% gives it the authority to apply for membership. Currently, Turkey has a population that would make it second to Germany. As a result, they would be entitled to the second largest number of MEP’s in the European Parliament. It is anticipated that their population will exceed that of Germany as of 2020, potentially giving them control of the EU. Arab refugees are the new population in Europe given a falling national population for just about every country in Europe. So, it isn’t just about ISIS, it is about changing the demographics of Europe.
In addition, admitting Turkey and giving them Parliament advantage, would open the door to the admission of other Islamic nations. And the rise of the Ottoman Empire could once again take hold, not through the backdoor as in ISIS – but right through the front door…
But then there is Cyprus. Cyprus has no land in congruence with Europe and was still granted admission (Cyprus sits ‘below’ Turkey). So if Turkey became an EU member, and a part of Europe, would it follow that any lands adjacent to Turkey could qualify for membership? Turkey is bordered by eight countries; Iraq, Syria, Armenia, Azerbaijani, Iran, Georgia, Greece and Bulgaria. Ottoman Empire united…
While currently no EU country may have more than 96 MEP’s, opening the door to more accession, changing the face of the Parliament, and applying lax standards and rules with exceptions can easily be seen as the shift toward a Europe that is no longer European.
It becomes easier to understand why the UK would vote for Brexit.
Side note: Turkey is directly North of Israel…