the fall of the Middle East

Saudi Arabia: Running Scared on Trump!

Posted on by Helena

The newest country running scared in the pre-inauguration of Trump is Saudi Arabia. Apparently, Prince al-Waleed who invested heavily in Hillary and routinely derided and slandered Trump during the campaign, is now eating his first Crow. But it isn’t going over very well, so the Saudi government has decided to switch tactics and attempt to bully Trump.

Take a lesson from the EU’s Juncker – it won’t work, and will most likely incur the exact opposite reaction.

The Saudi’s are scared. Their precious oil has been decimated in the market place for two years and has now spiraled them into an austerity not seen in decades. Fiscal deficits, over-spending, elitist Royalty, have plagued Saudi Arabia. Without oil, Saudi Arabia has nothing. Oil and its derivatives account for 90% of their economy. China, Japan and the US account for about 34% of their export income. With Trump in office, with Trump opening dialogue with Russia, the US could easily switch its trade partnership from the Sauds to Russia, further depleting the Saudi influence.

And they aren’t to happy about that prospect. Their response would be to threaten Trump – well, not a good move. Perhaps it has worked with others, Trump – not so much.

“At his heart President-elect Trump will see the benefits and I think the oil industry will also be advising him accordingly that blocking trade in any product is not healthy,” Saudi Energy Minister and Aramco chairman Khalid Al-Falih.

OUCH! The oil industry will advise Trump? Somehow, I don’t think so.

Blackmail: The Sauds blackmailed Obama over the 9-11 documents. And now they will assert the same threat to Trump. Holding $750 billion in US assets, the Sauds will most likely use that threat to assure that Trump continues to act as their oil puppet.

Economically, selling assets isn’t much of a threat, it simply means a new owner. Removing debt is another thing altogether. According to the US Treasury Department, Saudi Arabia holds about $117 billion in US debt. By comparison, China and Japan each hold over $1.2 trillion in US debt. Obviously, their stake is far more critical to our economy.

Could the US absorb those dollars?

In 2014, Russia moved $100 billion out of US banks in response to US sanctions. While the selloff certainly didn’t help, it did add to the already historically low rate that matches rates in the 1940’s! In fact, US Treasuries have been tanking for the last 3 decades. A high was shit in 1982 when the rate reached over 14% and has since been on a fairly steady decline with rates now marked at 2.23%.

From a simplistic standpoint, T-Bills rise and fall in relation to economic expansion, inflation and demand. Economic expansion is negligible, inflation is near non-existent, and demand has waned significantly given our latest recessionary periods. That being said, if Saudi Arabia dumped their T-bills I imagine the agenda would be to have Russia and Asia and South America ante in.

End result would be a fairly painless transition. However, the Saudi aligned Middle East countries may follow suit and add to the fray. But how would such a divestiture effect them? Their economies would spiral out of control, a price war on oil would result in further drops in pricing as OPEC attempts to create a vengeance which would only further contract the economies throughout the Middle East.

I doubt that would be to their benefit. But then, they don’t seem to have the same logic of markets and economic diversification. So while the gamble could have short term negative effects on the US, the longer terms would see a major decline in Middle East influence and a reorganization of economies outside of oil.

While the ride may be a bit rocky – the ultimate end game could be most interesting. Without oil – ISIS would have no revenue source… without revenue the Sauds would deplete their stockpile of weapons that support ISIS, and the entire cabal could actually fade into disarray and disintegration.

The French Connection: Tolerance or Hypocrisy

Posted on by Helena

The French PM is meeting with the Saudis to secure the sale of one of the largest military weapons deals. This, despite the Saudis bombing Yemen. This, despite the Saudis beheading more citizens this year than any other,

At the same time, an activist group in France wants to ban all hunting on Sundays as this contributes to accidental deaths.

Is their more than a bit of hypocrisy here?

There is a Treaty, The Arms Trade Treaty, that forbids the sale of weapons that can be used to commit violation of international law. What? I would venture that most weapons are used in violation of the law of life. But when the law is invoked, it is with an agenda. And when it is not invoked, it is because of – an agenda.

Because it has nothing to do with human rights, or international law, or murder, it has to do with money, $2.7 billion Euro’s to be exact. How many citizens have been killed in Yemen? $2.7 billion Euro’s more than -0-.  The ‘estimates’ as usual vary widely from about 2500 to over 5000 civilians. The number displaced is now 1.5 million. The number wounded tens of thousands.

Where is the activist group?  Why is this – tolerated?

France has sold the mistral warships originally destined for Russia – to Egypt. And this is okay? Egypt which accidentally killed 9 Mexican tourists. Egypt where British tourists have been warned not to visit for fear of terrorist attacks. Egypt where Sinai bomb blasts kill Americans. Egypt who violated ‘international law’ when bulldozing homes along the Sinai border with Gaza. Egypt who jails reporters from international borders. Egypt condemned over human rights issues.  HELLO?

It is okay for France to sell warships to this country…it is okay to sell more weapons to the human rights violators of Saudi Arabia… why?

Because as French media pundits state:  “France welcomes the cash.”   Yum, a fine wine or desert, – CASH.  But what about Russia’s ‘cash’?  Is not all cash equal?

Where does the EU get it’s oil? Three dominant countries; Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq account for 14% combined. So why bite the hand that feeds you and give handouts to the hand that smites your neck?

Egypt controls the Suez Canal. Over 4% of the world’s supply of oil and 8-12% of it’s trade must travel through the Suez. If that route were cut off, the cost of all goods would potentially skyrocket as transportation, time, and tumult would factor into the end value. It isn’t just oil, it’s Natural Gas. Some of the European countries rely on imports through Egypt up to 80% of their total tally. France and the US rely on about 25% of their gas imports coming through the Suez. That is not a small number. Upset that apple cart, and things begin to spiral.

So France is schmoozing for it’s imports and willing to sell their soul in the process. But that still doesn’t explain why activists are silent. Why are activists so concerned with a few hunting accidents and absolutely mute when it comes to the murder and violent deaths perpetrated across Yemen and Syria? Where is the ‘CRY FOUL’?

Lest we forget why the EU and US want Syria so badly devoid of Assad, it is because that’s what the Saudis want. And in order to give the Saudis ultimate control over all the Middle East, their enemies, the Shi’a, must be destroyed. That’s the agenda in a nutshell.

We support the Saudis to continue their oil deliveries and inr eturn support their agenda for full control of the Middle East.  We support Egypt despite their terrorist agenda because the Suez canal has the power to tip the balance of trade and create economic chaos.

It’s not about ‘we hate the west’, it’s internal, the west is a diversion. Power grabs. The Saudis set their sights on the entire Middle East and the west agreed to help provide that power in return for $$$$, lots of dollars. But it’s not just oil anymore, the Saudis have bought up a chunk of real estate as well. They pull their $$$$, they simply forfeit or renege on their holdings, they don’t care, it’s a game of chess, and we have lost our queen. Pawns are attempting to protect our king, but they too will fall as the juggling becomes more and more precipitous, and our power kegs in the US too stupid to see the leaning tower is not leaning, it’s falling.

The hypocrisy is so starkly shameful, not simply for the political games, but for the activists who seem to blindly follow without thinking of the bigger picture, faithfully banning this and that out of idle yawns for some ideal that doesn’t exist.

When the government talks of a global society, intertwined, this is the tangled web, it is not some pristine honor, or regal respect, or human rights, or humanity, it is the power and lust and greed of a few that now controls the masses.

Like sheep. We are led by the herdsman. We don’t know his call. We follow blind, deaf and dumb. Without respect. Without integrity. In search of some minutia sense of happiness that seems so ever elusive.